Yang Guang bit | July 14 $BTC Precise Strategy: Master the Trend End-to-End

Today’s game plan
Short entry timing: bounce to 62,800-63,000
Short averaging-in range: spike to 63,300-63,500
Stop-loss: above 63,800
Take profit in stages
First take-profit target: 62,200-62,000
Second take-profit target: 61,500-61,200
Light long for quick trades (reference): pull back to 61,800-62,000 with a light position, stop-loss 61,600, target 62,500-62,600, enter and exit fast

Core logic:
1. International finance & geopolitical news
Federal Reserve officials continue to issue hawkish comments; market expectations for rate cuts this year cool down again. The U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields remain at high levels with range-bound fluctuations. On the macro level, there is no sustained support to push crypto assets higher, and the rebound height remains strictly capped.
The situation in the Middle East keeps easing. The geopolitical risk-premium has fully disappeared. Without any positive stimulus from sudden conflicts, buyers have no clear impetus, and market risk appetite stays neutral-to-weak.
There are no new positive developments in crypto regulatory policy. Earlier expectations for policy changes have already been priced in, and there is a lack of incremental sentiment to drive a breakout above the overhead pressure zone.

2. On-chain & fund data
Funds from the BTC spot ETF have seen a slight return but lack sustainability. Top institutions still mainly sell on rallies. Long-term dip-buying capital has not yet entered. This rebound is driven only by short-term short liquidation, with weak staying power.
In the futures market, the short-covering move at high levels is basically over. High-level shorts are starting to be built again; the long/short position ratio continues to fall, and short-side strength has regained dominance. Selling pressure on the downside can restart at any time.
On-chain, “whale” addresses continue to transfer chips from the rebound phase to exchanges. The intention to cash out at high levels is strong, and overhead sell pressure continues to build. $BTC ‌#伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡