$BTC Tonight’s CPI and the Fed speech may bring some volatility; the 62,925 short has already been partially reduced and taken profit at 62,200. Can we add back at 63,200?

7/14 Beijing time:
├── 20:30 — June CPI data release ← 🔴 most critical
├── 22:00 — Walsh testifies at the House of Representatives ← 🔴 second most critical
├── US stock market open — earnings from the five major banks (JPM/BAC/WFC/GS/C)
└── Oil prices continue to swing (the Strait of Hormuz 20% toll effect)
Yesterday I said the shorts were exhausted, and today it’s fully flipped. Three major changes:

1. OI surges by 7.9% = a large-scale new short entry
Yesterday OI fell by 2.3% (longs closing positions); today OI jumps from 99,411 to 107,309 (+7,898 BTC). Price down + OI surging = new short positioning; the short trend is healthy. This is the most critical signal reversal.

2. Long/short ratio spikes to 1.84 = retail traders go all-in on the dip
Longs 64.8% vs shorts 35.2%. In the midst of the crash, retail is going all-in on the dip → classic “institutions short vs retail long.” If it continues to fall, the 64.8% longs could trigger a cascade liquidation.

3. Trump announces a 20% toll on the Strait of Hormuz #百万充值补贴
Oil price rockets 9.4% (WTI $78+, Brent $85+), US stocks fall across the board (Nasdaq -1.55%), and South Korea’s KOSPI plunges 8.96%, triggering a circuit breaker. Global risk-off mode kicks in.