🇮🇷🇺🇸 Washington has proclaimed itself the guardian of the Strait of Hormuz and set a 20% toll. But the problem is that the navy may not have enough warships to carry out this mission.

Brandon Weichert calmly worked out the operational costs. A real blockade means a 24/7 blockade of the shipping lanes, with all intercepted vessels being seized during the blockade—but the number of ships in the fleet simply isn’t sufficient. No European, Indian, or Japanese warships are willing to take part.

The first time U.S. naval guns hit a merchant vessel, the insurance market and market volatility will essentially serve Tehran for free.

As we speak, the situation continues to expand.

Two Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) tankers were hit by cruise missiles on the Oman side; one crew member was reportedly killed and eight were injured. Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) livestreamed its firing operation via an emergency channel.

Axios also revealed a major political development: before the airstrikes on Sana’a, Trump had backed Mohamed bin Salman (MBS) in taking military action against the Houthis.

Brandon issued an immediate warning: once they’re provoked, the Houthis will attack the Red Sea ports of Saudi Arabia—an alternative that Riyadh spent the entire war carefully building.

In his newly launched Substack column, he lays out the next front: the Gulf of Aden, where forces from all sides are massing and advancing toward Somaliland in order to suppress Yemen’s missiles.

As he puts it, this war is expanding at a geometric rate.

And he believes Iran’s strategy doesn’t fundamentally require an invasion: their allies control every choke point, and they will keep shutting borders until Iran pays the price in the form of economic downturn.