BTC rises 0.38% in 15 minutes: the escalation of the Iran–U.S. conflict disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, and geopolitical risk drives short-term buying pressure

From 00:45 to 01:00 (UTC) on July 14, 2026, BTC closed higher by 0.38% within this 15-minute period, with a price range of 62,310.6 to 62,663.5 USDT and a swing of 0.57%. Although it fell by about 1.89% from the intraday high of $63,994 to $62,503, short-term candlesticks still recorded positive returns, showing intense competition between bulls and bears and a significant rise in market attention.

The core driving force behind this unusual move is the continued escalation of the U.S.-Iran military conflict. The U.S. Central Command launched multiple rounds of strikes on Iranian targets. Iran retaliated against U.S. military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. Trump further announced a ban on Iranian ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and imposed a 20% toll on cargoes to other countries. As the Strait of Hormuz—an important global energy transport route—faces disruption, oil prices surged by nearly 4% and approached $80 per barrel, pushing inflation expectations higher. With the dollar under pressure, funds flowed into BTC, seeking a safer-haven alternative.

At the same time, rate-hike expectations and safe-haven demand are pulling in opposite directions. May CPI rose to 4.2%, and CME FedWatch shows the probability of a 25bp rate hike in July rising to 46.5%. Federal Reserve Governor Waller emphasized that if inflation remains above the 2% target, interest rates must stay higher. Gold fell by more than 1%, but oil prices jumped by 4%, causing differentiation within safe-haven assets. Although BTC benefited from the demand for alternative assets driven by geopolitical risk, it still faced pressure from hawkish rate-hike expectations, leading to a pattern of high-level consolidation followed by a pullback. Order book data shows the buy-sell depth ratio is 12.92, and there is a prominent buy wall near $62,500 (0.9677 BTC), indicating institutional-level support.

In the short term, focus on the $62,500 support level and the $64,000 resistance level, and be alert to whether the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates further, the Fed’s July meeting decision, and whether oil prices can break through $80 per barrel. If geopolitical risks continue to build while rate-hike expectations cool, BTC is likely to stabilize and rebound; if the conflict eases or rate-hike expectations strengthen, short-term downside pressure from a pullback remains. It is recommended to monitor the U.S. Dollar Index, the FedWatch rate-hike probability, and spot ETF fund flow directions.