According to a report from Coin Circle, based on A’s early monitoring of token issuance, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this month to have risen to 50%. The sharp fluctuations in expectations for rate hikes reflect extreme sensitivity to the Federal Reserve’s policy path. This probability level directly pushes up short-term funding costs and significantly suppresses risk assets. Investors are re-evaluating the endpoint of the tightening cycle, and market liquidity is facing tightening pressure. This shift in expectations is forcing traders to rapidly adjust their positions in order to deal with the reality that monetary policy may remain at elevated levels for longer.