Key battle points (technical analysis)

· Current battlefield: $60,000 - $61,000. This was the previous key support level; it has now flipped into a “high-pressure zone,” and repeated attempts to push up have failed to hold.
· Downside line of defense: A break below $59,200** may trigger further downside. The first line of defense is at $58,035. If it fails, price could slide toward $55,500.
· Upside space: Only a strong breakout of the $62,600-$63,700 area could truly restore market confidence.

📉 Market sentiment and fund flows (cautious bias)

· Capital flight: In June, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $4 billion, and the absence of institutional buy-side demand is one of the biggest pressures right now.
· Macro negative: Market expectations put the probability of a rate hike in December at as high as 80%. A high-interest-rate environment is very unfriendly to Bitcoin that offers near-zero returns.
· Polymarket positioning: The prediction market data shows that by tonight’s settlement, the probability of BTC holding $60,000 is only about 52.5%, basically a “coin toss.” $BTC ‌