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Good morning, everyone! Market analysis! Thanks everyone for your support!
In a financial report on July 14, Coinbase Institutional said on X that although the non-farm employment data came in below expectations, the escalation of the Middle East conflict has brought inflation back into focus. The market is pricing in a “higher for longer” interest-rate environment, with financial conditions for long-cycle risk assets tightening, and the probability of rate hikes rising by year-end. Bitcoin has fallen only about 2% amid the bad news, and Coinbase believes this could suggest the bottoming process. Meanwhile, since January 2024, the market cap of stablecoins has roughly doubled, but the adjusted trading volume for on-chain entities has grown by 4 to 5 times, indicating that the stablecoin turnover rate is accelerating. Stablecoins are no longer just idle reserves or “dry gunpowder,” but increasingly being used for real payments.
Financial news, July 14: BIT Official released a daily chart analysis, saying that current market pricing indicates the Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates 2.6 more times over the next few quarters, which forms a major reversal compared with the rate-cut expectations at the start of 2023 that helped trigger Bitcoin’s fifth bull market. Since September 2025, market expectations have continued to shift toward tighter monetary policy, bringing significant downside pressure to Bitcoin and other crypto assets.
Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller also said the Fed is standing at a policy crossroads, and his remarks are hawkish.
As a result, the CPI inflation data to be released tonight is crucial for Bitcoin’s price action. If the inflation reading is higher than 4.0%, it would most likely reinforce expectations for continued rate hikes, further intensifying the downside pressure.