🪨 **#Gold Morning News | Tuesday, July 14, 2026**

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## 📊 Core Data

| Indicator | Value | Change |
|------|------|------|
| XAU/USD | **$3,991.84** | 24h -2.91% (-$119) |
| COMEX front-month | ~$3,997 (Friday close $4,128.9) | Overnight down more than 2.5% |
| 24h Range | $3,988 — $4,111 | Fell below the $4,000 psychological level |
| 7-day change | **-3.94%** | Ongoing weakness |
| ATH drawdown | $5,591 → $3,992 | **-28.6%** |
| AU9999 | ~887.5 yuan/gram | -1.09% |
| Shanghai gold main contract | ~873 yuan/gram | -2.12% |
| Recycling price | ~873 yuan/gram | |
| Branded gold jewelry | 1232-1245 yuan/gram | Slightly lowered vs. the previous day |
| DXY | ~100.9 | US dollar strong |
| US10Y | ~4.58% | Small pullback from highs |

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## 🔥 Events from last Friday night + weekend

1. **Gold price breaks below the $4,000 mark** — It was still above $4,100+ last week; over the weekend it directly pierced the $4,000 psychological level, with a low of $3,986, nearing last year’s low zone
2. **US-Iran conflict escalates again** — The US military carried out its fourth airstrike on Iran within a week (Abbas Port). Iranian drones retaliated against Kuwait’s US military facilities + cruise missiles hit US vessels; the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has flared up. **But gold price didn’t rise—fell instead**: the logic has switched to “oil prices surge → inflation → rate-hike expectations → stronger dollar → suppressing gold”
3. **CPI lands today** — Beijing time tonight at 20:30 will release June CPI; **this is the last inflation data before the 7/28-29 FOMC meeting** and arguably the most critical data point this quarter
4. **CME rate expectations**: probability of a 25bp hike in July ~33% → would spike if CPI beats expectations; the probability of a hike in September is already **~52-74%** (under different measures); at least one hike within the year has a probability >75%

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## 📐 Technicals

- **Daily**: Weak pattern is clear. Price is trading below the 5/10/20-day moving averages, with bearish moving-average alignment. A bullish crossover is occurring below the MACD zero line, but the red histogram is shrinking; RSI has fallen to the mid-40s/near-48 neutral-to-weak zone
- **4H**: MACD is about to form a death cross; the Bollinger Bands open downward; price is moving along the lower band
- **Weekly**: Pressure below MA5; MA60 resistance overhead at 4170. The watershed is 4202-4203

| | Level |
|---|---|
| **Major resistance** | $4,491 (200-day SMA) → $4,391 (50-day SMA) |
| **Resistance** | $4,120-4,130 → $4,170 (weekly MA60) → $4,200 |
| **Support** | $3,986 (overnight low) → $3,960-3,940 (prior multiple dip zone) → $3,812 (lower end of the channel) |

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## 🎯 Strategy view

**Qualitative: the $4,000 “defense battle” is officially underway; tonight’s CPI is the showdown**

The core contradictions are clear:
- **Bear case**: stronger dollar + hotter rate-hike expectations + bearish alignment in technicals + ETF fund outflows (June net outflow $8.9 billion)
- **Bull case**: escalation in the US-Iran conflict (geopolitical risk hedging provides bottom support) + central banks’ continued gold purchases (45% central bank planned increases) + RSI/Hourly KDJ entering oversold zones

**Scenario walkthrough:**
- CPI ≤ 2.8% (below expectations) → rate-cut expectations return → rebound of $4,100+ likely
- CPI 2.8-3.0% (in line) → maintain range trading, tug-of-war near $4,000
- CPI > 3.0% (above expectations) → rate-hike expectations surge → downside to $3,940 and even $3,812 at the lower end of the channel

Cleveland Fed Nowcast forecast: June CPI m/m -0.1%, y/y +3.9%; core CPI m/m +0.2%, y/y +2.85%. **Core matters more overall**—oil prices fell 10% in June, pulling down headline CPI, but the stickiness of core inflation is what the Fed truly cares about.

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Key times today

| Time (Beijing) | Event |
|---|---|
| 20:30 | 🔴 **US June CPI** ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 00:30 | Fed Governor Waller’s speech |
| TBA | OPEC monthly oil report |

**Once CPI hits tonight, the direction is set. Before CPI, it’s recommended to control position sizes, watch more and move less.** 🪨