The Federal Reserve’s probability of a rate hike in July rises to 45%! Rate-cut expectations suddenly cool down

U.S. interest rate expectations are changing.

According to market observations, the probability of a July rate hike by the Federal Reserve has risen to 45%, returning noticeably from prior expectations. This means the market has started to reprice the Fed’s interest-rate path, as earlier optimistic expectations for rate cuts are being corrected.

Current trading logic mainly centers on inflation resilience, the performance of the employment market, and the Fed’s remarks. If subsequent data remains strong, the Fed may not shift to rate cuts as quickly as the market expects, and there may even be a possibility of further rate hikes.

As a result, the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and the stock market may all enter a repricing phase. Investors need to closely monitor the Fed’s policy signals, especially whether the rate decision and Powell’s speech will release a clearer policy direction.

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