#BTC BTC còn có thể đi được bao xa?

Weekly trend outlook (current price 63,800 USDT)
Three-line indicator status
1 Monthly chart: The monthly chart is still in a downtrend channel. The May high keeps sliding lower. May and June both closed with consecutive large bearish candles. This month is a deep-oversold rebound. The monthly MA5 is capping around 67,500, while the strong support below is 57,500. MACD is still below the 0-axis in the bearish zone; the green histogram is shrinking, but there is no clear reversal signal.
2 Weekly chart: The previous week ended with a bullish candle, breaking a four-week streak of consecutive bearish candles. Price has moved above the 20-week moving average at 63,000. Weekly RSI has rebounded from the oversold 20 region to 33, with a modest recovery in bullish strength. However, the 10-week moving average at 65,500 is strong resistance; the 200-week moving average at 57,800 is the ultimate bottom defense line for this cycle.
3 Daily chart: The daily Bollinger Bands have been squeezing, and price is trading above the midline. The 7-day moving average is turning upward to form short-term support, and the MACD golden cross is ongoing. But trading volume continues to contract, and a low-volume rebound is the biggest risk. Daily highs are gradually rising (57,800→61,000→64,000), which is a technical repair行情, not a reversal bull market.
Outlook for next week
Two scenarios
Bullish scenario (40% probability): Spot ETF inflows continue to be net positive. Breakout above the 64,700 resistance with volume. Upside target is 65,500, with an extreme test of the 67,000 weekly chart gap.
Bearish scenario (60% probability): Sell pressure is concentrated around 64,500. A push higher without volume leads to a pullback. It falls back to the 63,200 support. If it breaks 63,000, it directly conducts a second dip to 61,800, with an extreme retest of the 60,000 whole-number level.
Downside room assessment
There is still downside room: first short-term pullback zone: 61,800-63,000 (a typical correction, about a 1,000-2,000 point drop); medium-term deep down zone: 57,500-60,000 (if the rebound fails and ETF capital flows out, maximum downside is around 6,000 points). Only if it holds above 67,500 monthly resistance can the medium-term downside risk be thoroughly eliminated.
Crypto liquidity and market reaction
Mainstream view
1 Liquidity conditions
Overall market liquidity is extremely dry. Total market cap is only $21.9k? Wait: "21.9k亿美金" means 2.19 trillion USD, not billion. Keep faithful: $2.19 trillion. Compared with the May high, it is down more than 35%. Spot trading volume is down 47% year-over-year. Retail has clearly exited. The market is now mainly an interaction between institutions, big whales, and derivatives speculative funds. Coinb negative premium has continued for 55 days, with US retail still watching from the sidelines; only major ETF institutions like BlackRock are accumulating in batches at lower levels.
Capital is sharply split: there is incremental funding in RWA tokenized real-world assets and Layer2; meanwhile, the MEME, AI, and SocialFi sectors continue to see capital outflows.
2 Market reaction
Viewpoints
Institutional view: This round is just a bear-market rebound, not a new bull market. In the current high-interest-rate environment of the Federal Reserve, risk assets can’t run a big trend. The main approach is to reduce positions on rallies, and only accumulate spot BTC in batches below 58,000. Retail view: deep panic—once there’s even a small pull upward, people panic and take profit; with a slight dip, they panic-sell and cut losses; willingness to chase rallies is extremely low. Derivatives funding view: the long/short game is intense—within 24 hours, the amount liquidated for longs is higher than for shorts. In the short term, most of those who chase longs get trapped. Big players are watching rather than taking heavy positions.
Is crypto still worth investing in?
A simple breakdown into two categories
1 Spot long-term investors (1-2 year cycle) have value for allocation: the market is currently at a relatively low point in the cycle. Big whales and spot ETFs continue to hold coins at low levels. DCA BTC and ETH in batches has controllable risk, but you must extend the cycle and tolerate 20%-40% short-term unrealized losses.
2 Short-term speculators/derivatives players are extremely unsuitable: poor liquidity, frequent needle-like spikes, and no sustained continuation in either up or down moves. In a range-bound market, stop-losses are easily triggered repeatedly, and the risk of liquidation from leveraged contracts is very high.
3 Altcoin investors
BTC’s rebound to around $63,800 has somewhat repaired market sentiment, but volume and the medium-term trend have not yet provided a clear reversal signal.
Most small-cap coins have no real-world execution. When the broader market weakens, the drawdowns far exceed those of major coins; 90% of small coins will drift lower for the long term.
3 Only low-cap altcoins with potential (market cap within 2 billion) and clear logic
1 ONDO (ONDO, market cap $1.5 billion, leader in the RWA sector) core logic: institutional tokenization of treasuries is the leading narrative. It has partnerships with Morgan and BlackRock and other traditional finance players. Institutional capital continues to build the RWA narrative. In July, it launches new treasury token products, providing stable long-term incremental capital.
2 INJ (Injective, market cap $480 million, decentralized derivatives public chain)
core logic: an all-chain trading infrastructure. On-chain trading volume keeps reaching new highs. It is compatible with cross-chain assets between Ethereum and Solana. Valuation is relatively low; in a bear market, continuous development and iteration continue. There is no heavy unlocking and sell-pressure risk. In a bull market, the derivatives sector has extremely strong upside optionality.
3 RNDR (Render, market cap $1.8 billion, AI rendering sector) core logic: AI compute is a just-needed demand. The explosion of the AI industry boosts GPU rendering demand. Global studios continue integrating into the network. It is a cooperation target in the Nvidia ecosystem. After the AI narrative pulls back, it has room to repair, and institutional holdings continue to increase.
The above is for reference only and is not any investment advice!