All-market deep freeze (watch for a rebound)

Current positions: Jacques Technology, Huatian Technology, Aerospace Development, Torence, (Communication ETF, Semiconductor Equipment ETF, Chip ETF) [Taoqiba]

Jacques Technology, Huatian Technology: No change.
Aerospace Development: Not cut.
Torence: No change; added a bit more near the close.
Communication ETF: No change.
Semiconductor Equipment ETF, Chip ETF: Near the close, added back the positions that were cut from Aerospace Development in two more trades each.

Already disposed:

Hailanxin, Chengchang Technology, Qinglong Pipe Industry, Satellite ETF, STAR Market 50 ETF (swapped into the ETFs above)

Yesterday’s recap:

In the morning, when tech stocks surged, I didn’t feel like exiting; especially Huatian and new listings. Seeing how strong they were in the morning, I thought about holding to see if they could rebound and flip back up, but in the end they all fell back.
Aerospace Development originally wanted to take a small profit and trap people who would enter after; I ended up getting trapped too. In the afternoon, I couldn’t stand it anymore and cut everything.
In the end, I originally thought I’d top up ETFs on Tuesday, but today it fell too much, and the overall data is at an all-time low, so I topped up quite a lot near the close.
A market-wide slaughter—there’s nothing much to say. As long as you made a buy-point plan yesterday, today there’s a 90% probability you’ll lose money.

$1 line ==========

Data overview: Since this chip rally, this is the first time it didn’t make the leaderboard. The fastest rebound is tomorrow; the latest is the day after tomorrow.

Average position size and P&L: Average P&L is “two ices,” and average position size is “a big ice.”

Another data point: Because the contest just started, the data isn’t that accurate, but you can see that the average position size dropped extremely fast—at a freezing point.

Overall market sentiment: medium to slightly below, at a freezing point.

Limit-up streaks: medium to slightly below, at a freezing point.

Indices and sectors:

SSE Composite Index: Today it’s at the 3,900 integer level. It broke below the 200-day moving average; the next support is 3,794–2,819.
ChiNext: Broke just a little below the left-side support; the next support is 3,606–3,617 (near the 6-month moving average).
STAR Market: Near the 20-day moving average; the next support is 1,888 (near the 30-day moving average).
Communication: Currently near the 6-month moving average; next support (unknown).
Chips: Near the previous support (already broke below the 60-day moving average); the next support is (near the 6-month moving average).

STAR Market > ChiNext > SSE Composite Index
Chips > Communication

$1 line ==========

Tomorrow’s expectations:

The data looks a bit like Wednesday—almost a full freeze point. There’s a need for repair, but since recent market action often turns into consecutive freeze sessions, the expectation is earliest tomorrow for repair, latest the day after tomorrow. Based on past experience, starting tomorrow: the more it falls, the more you buy—especially if tomorrow there’s an急跌 caused by a big drop in the “sticks,” then that’s a buy point, not a sell point. Based on past experience again: when the market rebounds, most people still won’t run faster than the ETFs, and may even fail to beat the index ETFs. So buying ETFs has a better cost-effectiveness. (Still the same: no chase-the-high buy points—only buy points underwater.)

Assuming tomorrow opens higher: there should be some selling pressure during the session. Based on past experience, generally you look at the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market Index (once both indexes have sold down to underwater, it’s about enough)—this is the expectation for a higher open.

Assuming tomorrow’s call auction continues to open lower (red is only under 1,000 stocks): the bid/auction or opening downwards is a small buy point.

I have about 20% of my remaining position; tomorrow I should be buying ETFs in batches. I don’t dare to buy individual stocks.

Tomorrow’s plan:

Individual stocks: None.
ETFs: If there’s an underwater opportunity, buy in batches. (Semiconductor Equipment ETF and Chip ETF)
You can also consider index ETFs: STAR Market 50 or ChiNext Index (overall, volatility is less).

Position management:

Jacques Technology, Huatian Technology: Look to see whether there’s a rebound. If it keeps falling, hold; if it rebounds, judge the strength—if the strength is normal, exit.
Aerospace Development: Cut tomorrow.
Torence: Watch whether it rebounds. If it keeps falling, hold; if it rebounds, judge the strength—if strength is strong, reduce; if strength is weak, hold.
Communication ETF, Semiconductor Equipment ETF, Chip ETF: Look to see whether there’s a rebound. If it keeps falling, add; if the strength is strong, reduce; if the strength is weak, hold.