This move wasn’t sudden. When $UB couldn’t keep getting pulled up at the high end, the “flavor” had already changed.

I wasn’t watching just a single candlestick; every time there was a rebound, it got pushed back down, which indicates that the sell pressure above was persistent. A lot of people see consolidation and assume it will keep pushing higher—the key is right here: the longer it chops sideways, the heavier the pressure. After the breakdown, short positions get room to move.

After opening a short around 0.21896, the process wasn’t easy. There were a few small rebounds in the middle that could easily shake people’s conviction, but it never managed to get back above the key level again, so I kept holding. Now the price is at 0.07395, and my return is +1625.45%. With the room for fluctuation opened up, this leg of the bearish play has basically played out.

After taking profit, don’t get overly greedy. I’m inclined to first handle about 80% of the position, and let the remaining 20% be decided by the protection level. If it keeps going down, I’ll stay with it; if the rebound reaches the protection level, I’ll exit—no hard holding against the chart.

Don’t chase what you missed, especially if it already dropped for a while. Wait for the next more comfortable entry point.

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