According to CoinWires, the US 2-year Treasury yield touched 4.24% overnight, the highest level since February 2025. Despite the Federal Reserve cutting rates three times over the past year, the 2-year borrowing rate has not fallen accordingly. The market is taking a cautious stance ahead of the upcoming CPI report, expecting core CPI to rise 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, while headline CPI is expected to drop to 3.8% due to lower fuel prices. In addition, Iran’s latest re-engagement could further dent hopes for easing oil prices; even though crude oil prices have fallen, a tight refining market is still keeping fuel prices elevated. Analyst Ian Lyngen believes the current market has priced in too much anticipation of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, and that the 2-year yield may face pressure over the next few weeks.

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RedTelephoneBoothRuins
· 9h ago
The yield curve has been inverted for a long time without being repaired, and recession signals are clashing with inflation expectations—this market is hard to trade.
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NotYourExitLP
· 13h ago
Once this Iran situation gets stirred up, oil prices won’t come down, inflation will be stickier and more stubborn than expected, and Powell will be left dealing with a headache.
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雾里看TVL
· 14h ago
Lyngen is right: the market’s current rate-hike expectations are getting a bit too overheated, and the 2-year yield at 4.24% is likely not going to hold.
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HotAirBalloonCrossingMountains
· 14h ago
If CPI really follows the script—2.8% core and 3.8% overall—rate-cut expectations will need to be repriced, and volatility in the bond market is unavoidable.
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L2Sidequester
· 14h ago
Rate cuts came to nothing—short-term rates didn’t budge at all, and the Fed’s transmission mechanism seems to be stuck.
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