July 14 Outlook: Waiting for the data “shoe” to drop, with expectations that oversold rebound sentiment will recover!

Good evening, everyone. I believe everyone’s mood today is pretty lousy. To be honest, the July 9th volume-spike double bottom at 3,938.88—yet today it shrank in volume and you can get it broken down! That’s also rare! Now I’m also impressed. The KDJ’s J value for the broader market is almost entering negative territory, which belongs to an oversold zone. But with today’s kind of shrinking-volume sell-off, there still hasn’t been any panic-selling volume coming out. Even if it hits limit down of 170+ points, there’s still no panic selling with a volume spike. A lot of people who chased tech stocks at the high end have been trapped, down 40%+ already—some even like Tongding Interconnect have essentially been broken in half! People who handled this trade carelessly really lost a lot.

For Friday and for anyone who sold before the early 10:00 high, even if they cut loss, they still managed to take profit and reduce losses.

In this kind of sentiment environment, most people probably don’t have the “never give up” mindset. This morning, they couldn’t resist—Huatian Technology, Unisplendour (Tsinghua Unisplendour) Co., Ltd., and Fiberhome Star Net all went higher and then sold off as they topped out. For the next few days, just operate more “mysteriously” (keep a low profile). In the absence of a sustained sector trend, any profits that have already settled—stop taking profit first. Chasing highs and bottom-catching won’t be considered for now.

[Taozhibao]

Recently I’ve been advising everyone not to chase highs or catch bottoms—it’s been two straight weeks. If you listened and stayed in cash, these two weeks have been comfortable. Currently, most of the high-end stocks have repair expectations, but most of their “repairs” are the kind that happen during a continued downtrend. For example, the opportunities they gave you to push higher last Thursday and Friday were meant for you to reduce positions—don’t fantasize about “Yi” (meaning) or hold with conviction.

Below, I’ll briefly explain what the situation is right now, including how to follow the market on July 14th and 15th.

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1. Today’s broader market moves in sync with overseas indices. In plain terms, global tech collectively dropped. South Korea’s stocks crashed and triggered a circuit breaker, and we followed the overseas index trend. What the market outside is most worried about is the Fed’s CPI data. You’ll know tomorrow night. If the Fed hikes rates, things will be even worse for everyone. But the probability of a hike is not high, so you can just endure for another two days.

As for the index and sectors today, it’s simple too. Quantitative trading triggered a market-wide rout. Quant trading makes it so easy to amplify both up and down moves. The broader market has broken below the double-bottom at 3,927 points. If you apply the wave theory from technical indicators, it still needs to keep falling to below 3,890. So don’t try to bottom-fish. Any rally should be seen as an opportunity to reduce.

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The semiconductor and optical communications sectors both showed a descending ABC pattern (most stocks still haven’t completed it—don’t randomly bottom-fish).

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2. July 14th market trend: expectations for repair tomorrow. Fastest, tomorrow morning. But once the higher-position stocks break down, any rally at any time is a chance to exit. The market is already in a bearish trend. If you don’t leave, then you’re basically waiting to become a long-term shareholder! Below I’ll post a picture of individual stocks from the commercial aerospace era to remind people holding at the high end in the optics and PCB space. For that kind of one-way downtrend, don’t rush and expect to bottom-fish!

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There are also a few key points starting July 14th:**

1. CPI data release directly affects market sentiment.

2. The IPO of Changxin Memory on July 16th—there are still 2 days of contention for the related industrial chain on the 14th to 16th.

3. The Huawei computing power 950 product launch event on July 17th for domestic substitution.

4. Medicine is also not something I’m optimistic about, but since lately there’s been no other choice, many oversold low-position stocks that rose have still been forming a trend, and their move has been pretty decent.

5. The brokers will have opportunities tomorrow and the day after, especially if you overlay Changxin Memory—then brokers will likely show a stop-the-fall and an up move tomorrow.

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Trading methods for oversold rebounds:**

1. For high-position stocks that have a trend swing (the kind with a broken-board and then a reversal/covering move), they’re basically taking a break for now.

2. Right now, you’re actually thinking in terms of oversold rebounds—just follow the way the market is playing.

3. As for how to start trading low-position stocks—those ideas have already been shared in previous articles a couple of days ago. Has everyone’s thinking switched over yet?

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The stocks that fall a lot are tracked using bottom fractal structures. For now, just grow quietly—pick a few low-position trades, don’t go heavy.

(For the domestic substitution of China RJ’s three bottom fractal attempts, will it form a new small high?)

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Starting July 14th, the expectation for multi-day limit-ups: currently there’s also no height (no clear top) for limit-up streaks—don’t chase highs casually.

1-in-2: China Software, Jiu Zhitang

2-in-3: Haya Pharmaceutical

A few better medicine stocks: MeinuoPharma, CSPC Pharmaceutical (Joincare?), and Shuanglu Pharmaceutical.

Changxin-related recognizability: Hefei CJ, Bocheng Shares, CICC Securities.

Huawei computing power 950 direction: Tsinghua Unisplendour, Fiberhome Star Net, and Inspur Information.

For high-position one-way downtrending stocks in semiconductors, CPO, and PCB—there won’t be such a quick turnaround to stabilize. Please absolutely don’t try to bottom-fish. I’ve reminded everyone many times: whether it can stop falling and stabilize—everyone should judge mainly using bottom fractal structures.

What’s above is my personal understanding for today. There is no recommendation of individual stocks. The stock market has risks—be cautious with investments.

Break-down and reverse-back (board reversal after a break), ultra-large-volume bearish candles and ultra-large-volume bullish candles, and box range breakout—core strategies for reference:
For the cyclical行情 of CPO and PCB, to help retail investors build a professional trading mindset (April 25 article)
https://www.tgb.cn/a/2rhPFBxrsXo ;
Mid-to-late May, follow the trend to cultivate practice—no panic during pullbacks, then build strength and go again! (May 16 article)
https://www.tgb.cn/a/2rQ5KelN15n ;
Deep dive analysis of key stock summary and trend-swing strategies under the PCB cycle行情! (May 23 article)
https://www.tgb.cn/a/2s2k8R56Chr ;
After a collective high-end divergence, combine break-down board reversal and trend swings more on May 28! (May 27 article)
https://www.tgb.cn/a/2s8Xq7cg8M5 ;
Popular theme bull stock washout patterns: deep dive analysis of break-down board reversal and box range breakout! (June 6 shared article)
https://www.tgb.cn/a/2splwyNaGqS ;