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Fed Governor Waller just issued the clearest rate hike warning of 2026.
My View: The FED will not hike rates, but understand the reason behind market volatility.
"If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term."
That is not subtle. That is a direct warning tied to one specific event. Tuesday's CPI print.
The timing could not be more loaded.
Oil is at $74 today. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed again. US and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend. Energy prices are rising in real time as Waller speaks.
Here is what makes this moment different from every previous rate hike warning this year.
Waller is not the chair. But he is the most credible hawk on the board. When Waller says consider tightening in the near term the market listens. The dot plot already had nine officials pencilling in hikes. Waller just added weight to that side of the scale.
Two scenarios from here.
CPI comes in soft Tuesday. Core inflation cools. Waller's trigger does not get pulled. Rate cut narrative returns. Risk assets recover.
CPI prints hot. Oil inflation bleeds into core. Waller's warning becomes action. September hike probability spikes. Everything that rallied last week on weak jobs data gives it back immediately.
Enjoy Market Volatility.
Rest. #DYOR