Brother Xing said crypto July 14 ETH today’s thoughts

Buy low and sell high, try with a light position
Entry timing: 1800-1810
Add to a short: hit a high in the 1815-1825 zone
Short try: pullback to 1750-1765, buy low with a light position
Long order snap: 1835
Short order snap: 1730
Ceasefire is a mere formality—Hormuz Strait is again in urgent trouble
The ceasefire understanding memorandum signed between the US and Iran in mid-June is now nothing but empty words. On July 11, the US Central Command announced that it had completed this week’s third strike against Iran, smashing around 140 military targets; in the early hours of July 12, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards launched a hardline counterattack, announcing that it would close the Hormuz Strait effective immediately. With the world’s “energy throat” choked off, oil prices surged, directly triggering worries about an inflation backlash; rate-cut expectations from the Fed were shattered, and even the market has begun pricing the terrifying scenario of raising rates again within the year.
US and Iran bicker back and forth, and the situation falls into “strategic ambiguity”
The biggest feature of the current US-Iran situation is “extreme lack of clarity.” Trump unilaterally announced on a social platform that “the ceasefire is over,” claiming that Iran took the initiative to seek peace; just a few hours later, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs publicly denied it, and the US Central Command also responded vaguely that there is “no update on actions.” From Washington to Tehran, the question of “how to talk next” has turned into a complete case of mismatched narratives. This long game of “fighting while talking, negotiating while applying pressure” keeps global risk assets in a constant state of nerves. ETH is a high-Beta asset most sensitive to macro liquidity; in this risk-off mood where things could blow up at any moment, its valuation is being ruthlessly crushed.
The deflation narrative collapses, and fundamental support crumbles
Besides macro negatives, ETH’s fundamentals are still weak. After the Dencun upgrade, Layer2 absorbs the mainnet Gas fees, and ETH’s burn has dropped sharply—it's back into an inflationary state. The “ultrasonic money” narrative falls apart, and on top of that, high-performance chains like Solana continue to erode market share; in the current weak cycle, ETH lacks native demand support. $ETH #伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡