Star Brother Says Crypto 0714BTC Today’s Thinking

The US-Iran situation is unclear—buy the dip and sell the rip, with stop-loss in place
High-air strategy
Entry points: rebound to 632-635
Stop-loss setting: 640
Take profit in stages
First target: 622
Second target: 615

Light-position buy-dip strategy
Entry points: drop to 615-618
Stop-loss setting: 606
Take profit in stages
First target: 625
Second target: 630

0714 Message breakdown—funding—technical analysis in depth
1. Macros and news flow: the US-Iran situation is extremely unclear; the market is repeatedly torn between fear and luck
This is the core variable in the current行情. From July 11 to 12, the US-Iran conflict escalated sharply. The US military launched at least three rounds of airstrikes on Iran, with cumulative strikes of more than three hundred military targets. Iran then announced the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz and carried out large-scale retaliatory attacks with missiles and drones on US military bases in multiple countries across the Gulf, causing oil prices to jump by nearly four percent at one point.
However, the situation is not a one-sided full-scale war. Since the conflict broke out in February this year, the US and Iran have remained in a tense standoff of fighting while negotiating, with the conflict repeatedly bouncing back, and both sides actively controlling the situation. On June 17, both sides remotely signed a ceasefire understanding memorandum, agreeing on a sixty-day negotiation window. While July’s Doha talks have already started, both sides are physically isolated throughout the process and only transmit demands in one direction via a third party. The core disagreements have not been bridged at all; overall it shows more of a form than substance.
What does this mean? It means the market is not facing a certain negative catalyst, but a huge uncertainty that could reverse at any time or continue to worsen. Iran could further upgrade its blockade, or it could suddenly release signals of talks. The Trump administration claims it has already won on the military front, while also launching a new round of airstrikes—policy signals are extremely chaotic.
In this kind of unclear environment, the impact on the crypto market is two-way and intense. If the conflict escalates, oil prices will soar and lift inflation expectations. A Fed rate cut becomes completely out of the question, or even a rate hike could be back on the table—BTC, as a high-volatility risk asset, would face systematic selling. But if a sudden breakthrough in talks appears, oil prices would fall, and the market would then see a wave of retaliatory rebound.
So today’s strategy must be positioned both ways: place high-air and buy-dip orders at the same time, and use strict stop-loss discipline to deal with this extreme uncertainty. $BTC #伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡