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The CLARITY Act faces a critical window; before the August recess, a decision will be made on the bill’s fate this year
This week will bring an important milestone: updated legislative texts for two versions of the bill—now merged from the Senate Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee—are expected to be released. They will mainly reflect negotiation progress, retained provisions, and remaining disagreements to be resolved. At present, two major core sticking points have still not been overcome: first, the final status of the “Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act” remains in question, and the ongoing debate over whether non-custodial software developers would be classified as “money transmitters” has not been settled; second, the moral and ethics provisions have not yet been agreed with the White House. Democratic Party lawmakers and some Republican members are calling for a conflict-of-interest prevention mechanism targeting Trump’s cryptocurrency gains of over $1 billion.
Political developments further increase uncertainty: Republican Senator Graham has died, and McConnell continues to be absent, which substantially shrinks the margin for error for a bill that already requires 60 votes to pass, while the importance of Democratic votes has reached an unprecedented level.
Industry views on the outlook are clearly divided. Kristin Smith, president of the Solana Policy Research Institute, is optimistic, saying there is a practical path to passage and that momentum for a full-chamber vote is building. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, is more cautious, having lowered the probability of passage to 50%, warning that priorities such as the “National Defense Authorization Act” are squeezing out legislative time and that if the bill is blocked within the year, American crypto innovation will continue to flow out.