7.13 Recap: Technology fully rolls over, ending the trend-following market; pharmaceuticals go against the tide to break through as a safe haven—does a new cycle start with the next week?

7.13 Recap: The tech tide has completely receded—end of the trend-following phase; pharma breaks through defensively against the trend, and a new cycle is starting as a relay?[Taoqiu.com]

Hello everyone, I’m QingShan YI Shaonian. I focus on the dragon-gang/long-cycle sentiment cycle 龙头 strategy, break down the key logic of the intraday board every day, and only trade with certainties within the pattern, following the market’s cycle switch.

1. Market outlook: Precise gap retracement; the trend has ended; short-term relay trading is next

Today the market completely tore off the disguise. Brothers who have been clinging to fantasies of a tech pullback main line should be fully sober today. From late June to now, the market has repeatedly fermented expectations of a tech reflux theme, but today the tech sector has brought a destructive money-losing effect. This is no longer a simple divergence/adjustment—it’s the end of a phase of the行情. Many tech stocks are already down close to half, and the popularity leaders across sub-sectors and the trend “main force” units have all plunged and weakened.

I’ve repeatedly emphasized before: the broad-based tech rally is already over. Going forward, only the core names will keep getting entangled in repeated back-and-forth. And today even the sector’s core started batch selling and released a huge money-losing effect, which is enough to prove the tech major-trend rally has completely finished.

On the index level, today the Shanghai Composite precisely probed down to 3,902.61, perfectly filling the April 8 gap left by the jump. The technical risk has been fully released. But current market sentiment is extremely weak—bottom-fishing at poor value is very low and very difficult. With the tech strong-trend group-rally彻底瓦解, market style will most likely switch next. From here, it’s likely to bid farewell to the trend-ticket group play and officially start the low-level consecutive-board relay, with more opportunities for short-term players gradually increasing.

2. Sector breakdown: Full-scale retreat—only pharma breaks through defensively against the trend

1. Commercial aerospace: Divergence explodes—anyone who chased gets trapped

I made it clear early today that I didn’t like this direction, and the logic is very straightforward: last Friday the sector already showed a “spike then fade” pattern—classic entry-to-trap formation, with clear signs of capital兑现. Today the opening auction further confirmed weakness: the board showed obvious “false prosperity.” A small number of stocks propped up with one-word boards to mask divergence, while the sector’s identifiable core—航天发展 and 神剑股份—opened sharply lower. At the open, they were directly batch pressed down to the daily limit in the red. The sector was极致 fragmented internally, and the money-losing effect was directly maxed out. For a theme with such violently exploding divergence, the best action is to stay in cash and watch. The capital that chased last Friday is basically trapped today, so this direction should be abandoned from tracking in the short term.

2. AI applications: Arbitrage-execution is done; weak auction expectations directly eliminated

Today the 2-to-3 core names have only two: 好莱客 and 欢瑞世纪. The strength/weakness at the opening-auction stage already decided the outcome.

好莱客 auctioned weakly all morning; in the last few seconds it was smashed straight into the green. The matching volume spiked sharply, and the price kept slipping down—classic “capital抢跑出逃.” You could simply pass in the opening-auction stage.

欢瑞世纪’s auction was slightly better than expected, but the volume was clearly insufficient. After the open it quickly surged to hit the涨停, looking strong at the moment it mounted the board, but immediately encountered a capital sell press and fell back fast. This stock has been consistently爆量换手 in the past two days, and the筹码 cleaning was thorough. Yesterday expectations were maxed; a normal走势 should have been a morning 秒板, then stronger-stronger acceleration.

Today the stock炸板 and couldn’t quickly re-close, and its走势 was completely worse than expected. Combined with the current weak market backdrop, it is inherently a low-level arbitrage play with no need for “grit/stance.” I followed the flow and took full profit, exiting during the move—sold at the 4.44 yuan level. Even though I sold low, locking in gains is the best solution.

3. Pharma sector: The only defensive main line in the whole market; breaks through with profit against the trend

Yesterday the 2-to-3 relay was practically “a nine-son competition for the crown.” After excluding 3 pure interim-report performance names, the remaining 6 had promotion expectations. Today the only one that ultimately successfully got to the board was 立方制药, becoming the sole surviving “alive” one from 2-to-3 (excluding the one-word board 贵绳股份). With the whole market falling today, it perfectly matches pharma’s defensive attribute. The timing of 立方制药’s rise, the theme logic, and its position/market cap all align with the current行情. The individual stock has only a 2.1 billion yuan small-cap market value; it swapped hands fully on the first and second boards, and the筹码 structure is extremely healthy. It is the rare core that resists selling and holds up better in today’s weak environment. At 9:34 it briefly炸板, then immediately re-closed—there was almost no trace in the intraday chart, and capital’s follow-through/acceptance was very strong. In the back row, 哈药股份 shows similar pattern logic: also low-position, low-risk, and can be followed with some attention. Currently the sector’s absolute core anchor is 立方制药 and 万邦医药; tomorrow it has a high probability of continuing strength, making it the best relay direction in the whole market.

3. Deep thinking on the emotion cycle: Can pharma’s new dragon height break through the bottleneck?

In this pharma theme cycle, there has been a clear “height suppression” all along, and it has never managed to break the high-position bottleneck:

June 24: 海欣股份—failed on the 3-to-4 board;

July 3: 海南海药—failed on the 4-to-5 board.

Both rounds of pharma rallies were trapped at high-position promotion failure, never able to get out of the emotion of連扳.

The core stocks in this round of pharma are 万邦医药 and 立方制药.

Key to watch tomorrow: whether 立方制药 can break the prior high-position suppression and try to冲击 a 4-board space, then touch 6 boards afterwards?

If tomorrow the market sentiment warms up and the theme atmosphere aligns, and this stock smoothly progresses, it may break through the cycle’s height bottleneck in this pharma round and lead to a comprehensive repair of short-term consecutive-board sentiment.

4. Tomorrow’s trading plan

1. Core focus: Prioritize anchoring the pharma sector core, 立方制药, as the first observation target for tomorrow. Sentiment atmosphere looks good—go with the flow for relay trial trades to bet on a height breakout;

2. Secondary arbitrage: Watch 哈药股份 in the pharma back row for low-level follow-up opportunities—only do low buys, never chase highs;

3. Avoid directions: Tech and commercial aerospace have not yet stopped the money-losing effect in the short term—firmly avoid high-position relays; only watch, no action. The AI applications arbitrage cycle has ended—no longer track it;

4. Cycle thinking: The tech trend rally has officially ended. Wait patiently for the fermentation of a new low-level consecutive-board cycle, focus on pharma’s defensive main line, and trade the market’s only current certainty. The market’s style has completely switched: goodbye to the group-trend, back to low-level turnover-relay. Next, the key will be to drive pharma core through as a “survival” run, waiting for the new dragon to open the market’s height!

From the bottom of my heart, thank all the old irons for your help, encouragement, and rewards all the way!

@sinoerlishua @精准狙击yi @风一样的胖刺猬

A lot of family members have been quietly and unconditionally trusting and firmly standing with me. I always keep this bond in my heart. Every bit of your support is the biggest confidence that keeps me going deep into sharing and continuously producing output. Wishing everyone a growing flow of funds, a strong streak for your account all the way, and smooth ascent to great heights!