It’s just a bit of frost and wear. Trust the switch for another day.

July really had a disastrous start. I don’t know what to write for the recap. [TaoTalk]

Hynix’s peak-to-trough drop was 40%. The “price-hike king” memory managed to bring down the entire price-hike route all by itself.
Last week I said Jinko’s build-up laminated boards could be cut in half in just two weeks. But today it’s down another 20%. Is its performance bad? Institutions are giving it 30 billion+ in profit next year.
There were comments about Demingli and Zhaoji why their performance is good but they still fell. When I sold Gin安 last week, I already explained the logic breakdown behind the price hikes.
Tonight Gin’an Guoji released earnings—better than expected. This year it should have 3 billion yuan, and based on the current numbers, this year’s valuation would be around 20x P/E, and next year it’s under 10x. But the market no longer recognizes this logic.
However, whether it’s memory, CCL, PCB, electronic cloth, MLCC, or power semiconductors, the benefits from price hikes can exceed memory.
At its valuation, Hynix is currently under 5x P/E. Can the price-hike-related stocks match Samsung’s Hynix in profits and their low valuation?
That’s the core contradiction.
Respect the market.

Look at charts at high levels; look at logic at low levels.
Why, with the same earnings, do low-level names like Inspur, Ziguang, and even Dongyue Silicon Material still go up?

The switch/server line is still worth watching: Ziguang, Inspur, Zhongke Shuguang, ZTE, Inspur, Ruijie
Domestic GPUs: Muxi, Moore, Cambricon
The worst off is commercial space. Today there were batch daily limit-downs. Even China Satellite tried to touch the limit-up board this morning but failed.

Ziguang Co., Ltd. — the main force is working hard. It’s just that the overall market environment isn’t good. At 2:30 p.m. I sold my bottom-position holdings; in the late session I saw funds still maintaining the position, so I did double the error-correction buyback.
Inspur Information exited first. If I’d stayed, I’d have to incur losses back to my cost.
Wantong Development at the close—see whether the major player can manage it.
Because Yonyou Silicon has been targeted, its bottom-position holdings are still there and the ten-day moving average hasn’t been broken.

The market is a bit pathological. So should we choose to “take medicine”?
Like Wanbang Pharmaceutical, it’s also fund operation—I’ve been watching it for a week.
I don’t choose to go into innovative drugs or robots, because in my view if AI really is gone, these laggards catching up will fall even harder.

Or you do consecutive limit-ups.
Hengshang Energy’s group play; CITIC Heavy Industries and JiuFeng Energy, Lifan Pharmaceutical
Some people are also hyping that the institutional trend is not working and we should go back to monster stocks running consecutive limit-ups. This is impossible.
The market ecosystem is gone—after losses, the liquidity and short-term players are drained, and retail investors are wiped out too. Over these two years, there’s no counterparty left.
In the past, when you saw a leading stock, it chose to hold its ground: reverse-day (give-back) confirmation, weak-to-strong, and the first-day red opening. Now it’s all about stabbing each other.

After the market drops to today, I actually feel it’s not that scary.
The index probably has limited downside room.
I still choose to believe in technology.
A rebound doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to lift the stocks you hold.
But it needs to erase your first-half “memory” of tech.
Don’t just think of copper foil, electronic cloth, PCB, CPO when it comes to AI.
Next, you need to look at a new pattern and new catalysts.

I’m waiting for the wind to rise, straight up to nine ten-thousand li
Shang Zhong