BTC rises 0.15% in 15 minutes: tensions between Iran and Israel escalate, boosting safe-haven demand as institutional buy support appears

During the 14:00-15:00 UTC window on July 13, 2026, BTC rose briefly by 0.15%, with a price fluctuation range of 62,247.4-62,420.0 USDT and an amplitude of 0.28%. Despite the modest rebound in the short term, BTC is still within the 24-hour pullback channel of 2.29%. It has fallen more than $1,700 from the intraday high of 64,433, as market volatility has increased and investors’ sensitivity to geopolitical risk has risen significantly.

The core driver behind this unusual move is the escalation of the US-Iran conflict. The US Central Command launched multiple rounds of strikes against Iranian vessels and facilities. Iran carried out retaliatory attacks on the countries hosting US military bases in the Persian Gulf, intensifying the struggle for control of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, oil prices surged by nearly 5%, approaching $80 per barrel, inflation expectations rose, and the US dollar came under pressure. Against this backdrop, BTC as “digital gold” attracted some safe-haven inflows, and the “alternative asset” narrative received short-term support.

Meanwhile, technical signals and capital flows are converging. The 15-minute and 1-hour RSI for short cycles both entered oversold territory, suggesting that near-term selling pressure may be excessive and that there is demand for a technical rebound. Order book data shows that around $62,700 there is a large buy-wall of orders; the placed order volume is 0.4150 BTC, accounting for 94.3% of total buy orders in the top 5 levels. The buy-sell depth ratio is 4.66, with buy pressure clearly dominant, implying that institutional capital may be propping up the market or accumulating at this level. In addition, gold is falling in sync by more than 1%, and the broader risk-asset pressure limits BTC’s rebound space.

Key risks and subsequent catalysts to watch now include: whether the US-Iran conflict escalates further or signs of a ceasefire emerge; if the Strait of Hormuz is substantially blocked, oil prices may break above $80. The inflation narrative would strengthen BTC’s safe-haven appeal but could also trigger renewed expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. The Federal Reserve’s July meeting and the first rate decision by new Chair Kevin Warsh are coming soon. May’s inflation data has already risen to 4.2%. The market is pricing a 59.5% probability of rate hikes in 2026; if the rate-hike expectations strengthen, it would weigh on risk-asset valuations. On the technical side, $62,100-$62,200 is the support zone for intraday lows, while $62,750-$63,000 is a resistance level where short-term moving averages are suppressing. Continue to monitor oil prices, the US dollar index, and on-chain flows of large funds.