0713 recap: the top structure in tech is becoming increasingly clear; in healthcare, capital is seeking shelter and survival. Backups: anti-dragon.

First, look at the picture—talk based on what you see in the picture.

There’s truth in what you see. This ETF is one I started building a position in today—today I added a position in the medical sector too, .

This is anti–Long. Yesterday during my recap I already said it. Everyone is celebrating big tech—what Zhanxin Memory goes public, and then they keep charging ahead at full steam—but I felt a chill up my back and my legs went weak. I saw so many things that happened in history. Life’s joys and sorrows. Back then, PetroChina’s listing also happened at the end stage of a bull market. When it was all loud and crowded and everyone was roaring, it listed; after that, it was a whole set—ten years—until today it still hasn’t broken even. I privately thought to myself: I really admire why those main institutions and management chose to list at this time. Why not earlier, or later? Why specifically choose to list now—what meaning is there? Is it just about timing and favorable conditions, the right time, place, and people? Then you’re basically trying to trap retail investors. You list with a big rear—think about how much capital you need, how much money you’re going to suck out. You’re a vampire—trillions. Where is that money coming from? It won’t just fall from the sky, right?

To put it bluntly, it’s still everyone’s—our money. Will people buy your story? Not necessarily. Those smart ones might start fleeing. Let me share a small, very realistic anecdote here. What does it mean? Today this production team. They’re going to hold a meeting. Because some top leaders are coming to inspect the work. Then these top leaders will come to visit house by house—eat for free, drink for free, and even take freebies—basically that kind of thing. But if nobody’s at your place, if the door is shut, or if you’re not home, then these people can’t go to your house and eat for free and take things. You dodged that one.

When I think back on this, I connect it to this “rear-end” listing. Those big funds that are tuned in to the same signals as everyone else will definitely also notice and leave. They won’t陪 you play, and they won’t come to “eat for free” with you. They’ll close the door and run early—don’t buy your story. Then those “oh I won’t say more” people—if someone says I’m fortune-telling, fine, I’ll keep going. I already did one fortune yesterday; today I’ll do another.

Next, my analysis is that big tech won’t immediately extinguish. In a few days it may rebound again and push upward further, because it needs to distribute. There’s only one way to distribute: pull it higher. Only when it’s raised will people be willing to take the next bag. If it drops downward, it can’t distribute—no buyers take the bag. So it will only pull upward, giving the feeling of a fake breakout—giving the feeling that it’s up again and ready to start a second wave. Those people who cut earlier and sliced meat, who are now unsure and hesitant, will go back to buy again: “I was down before; this time I recovered it, so I’ll buy it back too.” But when you buy it back, it immediately gets smashed again—crushing you, knocking you into confusion.

So in two days when it rebounds, its message is: “Old folks, don’t leave. There’s more to come.” That’s the idea. But I—wait—I don’t buy it. “Old folks, don’t leave.” As long as it pulls up, and as long as you have what you have—whatever, as fast as you can run, run as fast as you can. Just reduce your losses. If the broad market index doesn’t break 4,258, then every rebound is an exit opportunity for you.

It fell from 4,200 to 3,900, then rebounded—up 200 points—to 4,100, then it dropped again to 3,800. When it’s at 3,800, it rebounds again—back to 4,000. It rebounds to 4,000, and you think it’s about to rise again—then it drops again, down to 3,700. In short, as long as each rebound doesn’t break the previous high, it’s luring in for distribution. That’s how I think. As for how you think, I don’t care, and I can’t control it. I can only manage myself.

So if you put it this way, doesn’t it sound terrifying? Yes—when you put it like this, it really is terrifying. No matter how you chase, how you do things, how hard you try, you can’t catch up with the main force’s rhythm. You can’t catch up with quant models either—you’re being harvested by quant algorithms every moment. In this kind of market, no matter how much you try, it’s useless. Even if your logic and methods are great, even if the theme is excellent—it’s just a flash in the pan. Because its big trend has already changed. If you don’t move, others move; if others don’t move, the main force moves. If the main force doesn’t move, the quant does—because none of them like the outlook. So what are you still doing?

Then, does that mean there’s no opportunity anymore? Opportunity still exists—but the difficulty of capturing it will increase. We can only keep researching, keep drilling down, and then combine our own high-sell/low-buy price-volume relationship. As long as its volume and price-volume relationship hasn’t changed, and the trend hasn’t changed, we do high-sell, low-buy—quick in, quick out. We need to prepare for a bear market. We need a bear-market mode. Some people may ask: what is a bear market? Then you should look: the current bear-market leader is Seres (赛力斯). This stock is the one that first started a 10-bagger bull market. After it reached 10x, it didn’t do any platform consolidation. It directly tore off the mask and turned downward, starting the bear market. Now it’s the bear-market leader in the market.

There are leaders in both bull markets and bear markets—there are leaders in bear markets too. The leader for bear markets is Seres. As for how to fight tomorrow, who do we hit first? My battle plan has two parts: the medical ETF 2390 and the Kanglong I entered today—also a pharmaceutical stock. The volume-price relationship is very good. Today it’s also very resilient to declines. As for how it will move tomorrow, we’ll see during the intraday session—then we can do high-sell, low-buy. This ETF can also be treated like a stock and do high-sell, low-buy for it too.

The recap is short but original. Some people say I’m fortune-telling, and some say I’m just randomly guessing. If you also agree with my “fortune-telling” and my “random guessing,” then give a like and follow—wealth all the way, exploding rich. If you say I’m harming people and just talking nonsense, then you can directly block and unfollow me—just swipe away.

The views above are purely my personal thinking logic, and they are not any investment basis. If you don’t like it, don’t attack me.