7.13 recap: On the brink of collapse!

Hey, I’m really devastated—is 3900 the bottom? Tomorrow, the bulls will go all-in for a last stand! Lose and it’s an endless abyss! [Taoguba]

In yesterday’s weekly strategy, I said this week would feel uncomfortable, but I didn’t expect it to be this hard. Really numb.

So the most dangerous part of today’s market isn’t the collective limit-downs in BOE and兆易创新,
nor the commercial space theme riding the涨停潮 from Friday straight into a slaughter of batch “nuclear” buttons today.
What’s truly dangerous is that the Shanghai Composite broke below the 3927 prior low,
refilled the breakout gap from April 8,

after pressing toward 3900 intraday, but the market still failed to form a genuine, meaningful rebound with volume. Indices broke down. A hundred-stock selloff. Tech leaders followed with batch-style deeper losses. Judging by today’s close, it’s indeed not looking good.

But it’s too early to declare a bull-to-bear switch right now. Because today, at the most dangerous spot, there were two resistance attempts. And behind these two resistances stood two completely different forces. One is our mom. The other is the国产 AI chain the market selected on its own.

That’s also why I believe: tomorrow, the bulls still have one final chance for a last-stand reversal.

Let’s talk about the index first.
Why tomorrow will have the fiercest contest between bulls and bears at the 3900 level? Because today, the opening call auction literally gapped down. After the open, the index barely showed any effective resistance—then it pierced the prior low, and continued lower to refill the breakout gap left on April 8, with the low pressing directly toward 3900. But at the critical point, there were moves indicating resistance.

Technically, breaking down to here is undoubtedly ugly. The prior low was lost. The breakout gap was refilled. Even the original consolidation platform showed signs of breakdown.
But today we need to be clear about one thing: breaking below a key level intraday doesn’t mean the downtrend is officially confirmed. A true breakdown isn’t when support gets stabbed intraday on one day. It’s confirmed only when, after the break, there’s no follow-up buying to take the pressure—and if the next day continues gapping down and grinding lower, and the rebound can’t reclaim the level, that’s when you can confirm that this support resistance can’t hold the selling pressure.

So today is just putting the problem on the table. Tomorrow is when the market truly submits the answer sheet.

If tomorrow tech can’t repair, and the index keeps making new lows, then 3900 won’t just be a sentiment low—it could become part of a new leg of the downtrend channel.
Conversely, if tomorrow can reclaim the gap and be led by tech core names with a volume-backed repair, then today’s situation is closer to a fake breakdown under extreme emotion.
So today isn’t the time to make a conclusion—we decide based on tomorrow.

So on the trading front, the most worth studying detail is this: in the afternoon, every time the index approaches the key zone, who is actually pulling the trigger. First, let’s look at the first wave of resistance: Finance came to stabilize—but the attitude mattered more than the strength.

Around 1:30 pm, after the index finished refilling the gap, insurance and securities suddenly collectively surged.
This move was very clear. When finance moves—especially when insurance and securities both exert force at the same time—it’s usually not just random behavior from ordinary capital. It looks more like “mom” stabilizing through weights. What does that imply? It implies that around 3900, it wasn’t completely unmanaged. “Mom’s” attitude was very clear: you can drop and release risk, but I don’t want you to directly cause a loss-of-control-style stampede. But even so—there are clear problems with this finance surge. First, volume wasn’t enough. Second, tech didn’t follow. Third, no outside funds entered.
So this is more like a probing and caretaking attempt, not an effective counterattack.
It’s like: securities pulled the index out of the danger zone. The market looked and found there wasn’t incremental capital willing to take over. Then it slipped down again. This shows that finance can only delay the decline; it can’t single-handedly manufacture a real trading行情.
Then the second wave of resistance in the afternoon is when finance withdraws and the国产 chain takes over.

The index probed again later in the afternoon and tapped the 3900 area. In this round, finance’s exertion was already clearly weaker.
If we rely only on “mom’s” current caretaking, the index would likely keep sliding lower.
So the one that truly stepped up was the国产 chain represented by China AI 50.

China Software had both its initial close and end-of-day closebacks (reclaiming strength) occur at the index’s key resistance nodes.

Tsinghua Unisplendour was even more obvious: after the index probed below 3900, capital quickly flowed back, and the stock was pulled to close near turning positive at one point.

Wavefunction Information, Ruijie, Huatian Technology, Huafeng, and other identifiable names also showed various degrees of follow-through and unusual movement.
These picks look scattered.
In reality, they all point to the same logic: centered on the “Brother Hua” ecosystem, spreading into switches, servers, storage, and国产 compute power infrastructure—an AI国产 chain.
So in the afternoon today, it wasn’t only “mom” protecting the market—there was also国产 AI trying to hold up market sentiment.
Their differences are crucial. If in the afternoon it were only finance lifting the index, then today could almost be defined as the market having no spontaneous long-side force internally. But at least now we can see that the国产 chain is still actively fighting for capital.
And because this force hasn’t completely disappeared, the bulls still have that final chance to reverse tomorrow.
Then naturally,国产 AI becomes tomorrow’s most important observation direction. In the past, Inspur was the sentiment core for the server theme. But if Inspur continues to be weak afterward, while 紫光 can reclaim territory first and even move into trend repair, capital may complete a core switch.
That means: tomorrow isn’t just about whether Inspur can stop the bleeding—we also need to see whether 紫光 can upgrade from passive “not falling” to active leading. If the core国产 AI names like 紫光, China Software, Ruijie, etc. form coordination, then there’s a chance the index can be lifted back by tech again.
On the other hand, if they all open higher and then fall back, it means today’s end-of-day resistance was just capital’s self-rescue.

Next, look at optical communications.
Dongshan, a sentiment bellwether, today showed extremely stubborn performance under short-side selling pressure and market panic. The other trend core, Jintai, is also holding the 60-day “life line.” This indicates that optical communications is still favored by capital, and it may again become the first-choice for repairs in the next phase.
As an index-closely linked, high-beta high-elasticity category, optical communications’ repair often comes together with the index stabilizing and rebounding. That’s why each surge from Dongshan isn’t merely a single-stock action—it reflects market sentiment. Therefore, whether the sector can see renewed inflows later depends on whether Dongshan can maintain its strong posture, and whether Jintai—serving as a pillar—can stabilize and reclaim the 5-day trend.

So tomorrow, there’s no need to guess.
Watch 紫光.
Watch Inspur.
Watch China Software.
Watch Jintai.
Also see whether securities can get volume.
As long as tech stands up, A-shares still have a way out.
If tech can’t stand up, then the space below 3900 really will open up. That’s the end of today’s recap. Remember to like and follow. Brothers, if you have questions, welcome to leave them in the comment section.

To my old friends and new friends, I’m锦榕. If this recap helps you, please give it a like; if you really feel there’s value, you can also support with 100 points. Friends who have “fuel coupons” in hand can also drop one. This isn’t only recognition for锦榕—it’s the motivation for me to keep delivering high-quality recaps.

After converting, 100 points are just a couple of dollars—about the price of a bottle of mineral water. But with this recap, I’ll break down the full-day行情, the logic of capital, sector rotation, core opportunities, and the short-term rhythm as clearly as possible, so everyone can take fewer detours and avoid fewer traps. Whether you’re a beginner just getting started, or you’re already trading short-term, believe you can gain something from it.

This morning I gave everyone the chance to run while things were red. And during the day, every sentence I said was concise and efficient.

After each market close,锦榕 spends a lot of time repeatedly recapping and mapping out market dynamics—extracting truly valuable intraday details and trading ideas, then sharing them with everyone without holding back. My original intention hasn’t changed: I want everyone to pay less tuition, make fewer mistakes, and gradually build their own trading system.

In the end, the market will verify logic, and your account will verify strength. As long as everyone is willing to calm down, learn seriously, and think repeatedly, we’ll keep improving together and grow the account step by step—that’s the result I hope to see most.

Thank you everyone for your tips to锦榕. Since the current market isn’t good, everyone can still keep going—family, you’ve really gone out of your way! Brothers, do what you can. If you can still support me in an environment like this, I won’t let down the family. @小铜子@孬孬哥@幕同听股@风起绿洲