[Red Envelope] The SSE Composite Index breaks above the annual line for the first time in 15 months! Is it a “golden pit” or a “mid-term top”?—Can it reclaim the level and determine life or death tomorrow?

Brother Ge checks the market—replaying is even more about forecasting!!! Special focus on Brother Ge alone is enough!!! [Taoqiba]
**
Clear style, with emotions or trends hitting the nail on the head. The systematic replay pinpoints the core direction directly—worth praising, rewarding, and everything in one! Wishing you a rainbow of trends, steady and upward!**

**Replay on July 13, core curated outlook for July 14
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Replay on July 13—Black Monday: broad-based plunge! The Shanghai Index broke below the 1-year line; over 400 stocks fell more than 10%, with defensive sectors regrouping against the tide!

1. Market overview

$2.82 trillion in turnover, shrinking volume with a heavy selloff: all three major indices fell sharply together; the Shanghai Index broke below the 1-year line again after 15 months!

**Data speaks: **

The Shanghai Index closed at 3913.79 points, down 2.06%, with turnover of 28.2k yuan; the Shenzhen Component closed at 14522.85 points, down 3.48%, with turnover of 1.48T yuan; the ChiNext Index closed at 3723.52 points, down 3.1%, with turnover of 696.34B yuan; the STAR 50 Index closed at 1994.32 points, down 3.42%, with turnover of 2149 billion yuan. Total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets combined was 28.2k yuan, shrinking by 262M yuan versus the previous trading day.

In the whole market, only 780 stocks rose, 4377 fell, and 40 were flat. 32 stocks hit the daily limit up; 187 stocks hit the daily limit down. In the whole market, more than 2200 stocks fell more than 5%, more than 170 hit limit down, and more than 400 hit limit down or fell more than 10%. The median advance/decline was -4.19%.

The most core change—capital retreated completely from “offense” to “defense”!

On the board, dividend-style sectors such as banks, coal, and oil & petrochemicals strengthened against the tide. The traditional Chinese medicine sector became active against the trend due to policy tailwinds: 陇神戎发 surged to a 20CM limit up, 天目药业 hit a limit up. The specialty electronic gases theme was active: 九丰能源 made two consecutive limit-ups.

On the downside, the entire semiconductor industry chain became the biggest disaster area—memory chips, equipment, optical modules, and AI servers all plunged across the board. 香农芯创 and 长盈通 both touched 20CM limit down; hard-weight hardware stocks including 兆易创新, 京东方A, 生益科技, 中天科技, etc. all hit limit down. The fiber optics theme was severely hammered: 亨通光电, 长盈通, 烽火通信, 特发信息 all hit limit down. The MLCC theme shook lower and down: 风华高科 hit limit down. The commercial aerospace sector staged a “good news cashed out” pattern, with a batch of limit downs. Concepts such as cultivated diamonds, PCB, CPO, and memory chips all ranked among the top decliners.

One-sentence headline:

**$2.82 trillion shrinking-volume selloff, the Shanghai Index breaking below the 1-year line again after 15 months. In the whole market, more than 4600 stocks fell, with over 400 hitting limit down or falling more than 10%—**liquidity being drained triggers collective profit-taking, pushing the market into an extreme panic mode!

2. Deep analysis from the capital dimension
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1. Overall movement of main/large funds**
   **
   Sector fund flows: **

Main/large funds in both markets net outflow of 96M yuan throughout the day. Only two industries—oil & petrochemicals (net inflow of 2.62 billion yuan) and agriculture & animal husbandry (net inflow of 0.96 billion yuan)—received net inflows from main/large funds. 29 industries saw net outflows from main/large funds.

The electronic sector saw net outflow of 520.93 billion yuan from main/large funds, the largest in the entire market; mechanical equipment net outflow 112.59 billion yuan; communications net outflow 8.81B yuan; electrical equipment net outflow 6.47B yuan; national defense & military industry net outflow 1.17B yuan; computers net outflow 61.25 billion yuan.

Stock level (main net inflow TOP):

通富微电 had main net inflow of 11.74 billion yuan, ranking first in the whole market; 宁德时代 net inflow 7.13 billion yuan; 星网锐捷 net inflow 5.44 billion yuan; 九丰能源 net inflow 713M yuan; 拓荆科技 net inflow 544M yuan; 四川长虹 net inflow 445M yuan.

Main net outflow TOP:

华天科技 suffered net outflow of 25.57 billion yuan, ranking first; 京东方A net outflow 407M yuan; 香农芯创 net outflow 389M yuan; 北京君正 net outflow 2.47B yuan; 兆易创新 net outflow 2.18B yuan; 紫光股份 net outflow 1.94B yuan.

Brother Ge’s take:
The electronic sector (semiconductors, chips, advanced packaging) became the biggest “blood loss” point for funds—net outflow of over 52 billion yuan in a single day. This sharply contrasts with the earlier net inflow of nearly 90 billion yuan on July 9. In just two trading days, capital flipped from “furious inflow” to “furious outflow,” and the hard-tech sector experienced stampede-style selling. Dividend-style sectors like banks and oil & petrochemicals became the “safe harbor” for funds—sending the market fully back from “offense” to “defense”!

2. Northbound capital moves

The龙虎榜 shows northbound capital participated in 31 stocks on the list, totaling net outflow of 1.02 billion yuan. Among them,沪股通 net outflow was 1.85B yuan, while深股通 net inflow was 45.6016 million yuan.

The stock with the largest net inflow from northbound capital was 华天科技, with net inflow of 202 million yuan. The stock with the largest net outflow was 拓荆科技, with net outflow of 716 million yuan.

Institutions and northbound capital jointly net inflowed to 华天科技, 欢瑞世纪, 沃顿科技; jointly net outflowed from 国恩股份, 星网宇达, 众合科技, 宏桥控股, 通源石油, 旭光电子, 中船特气, 天娱数科.

Brother Ge’s take:
Northbound capital was also withdrawing sharply. Although 拓荆科技 saw institution net inflow of 1.8B yuan, northbound capital still net outflowed 716 million yuan—there was a clear divergence between domestic and foreign capital on the semiconductor equipment leader. Overall, northbound capital—just like domestic funds—pulled back from hard tech toward defensive, large-cap sectors.

3. Analysis of technical indicators
**
Index technical formation**
**
Shanghai Index:**
Down 2.06%, at 3913.79 points, with an intraday low of 3900.67 points. After 15 months, it fell below the 1-year line again (250-day moving average). Daily KDJ entered a deep oversold zone; there is a possibility of a technical rebound in the short term. But the 1-year line is crucial as the traditional bull-bear dividing line. If the index cannot get back above the 1-year line within three days, be cautious about the index revisiting the prior low around 3800 points. The 5-day moving averages above and near the 1-year line will create overhead pressure on the index.

Shenzhen Component / ChiNext:
Down 3.48% and 3.1% respectively. Selling pressure on growth weights in the Shenzhen market was released across the board; the drop was noticeably greater than in the Shanghai main board. For the ChiNext Index, the biggest single-day decline in this round of adjustment.

STAR 50:
Down 3.42%, at 1994.32 points. It surged in the early session, then traded sideways and slid lower in the afternoon. Compared with the prior blowout on July 9 of 8.41%, this formed an extreme contrast—the STAR board became the most volatile index in this round of adjustment.

CSI 2000:
Several consecutive days of closes lower; small-cap and micro-cap stocks continued to experience batch “catch-downs.” The micro-caps remained weak, indicating that funds still shifted from mid-/small-cap theme stocks toward defensive, large-cap targets.

Key conclusions:
The market has entered the stage of “defensive regrouping and hard tech retreat.” The Shanghai Index breaking below the 1-year line is an important technical signal. Even though a technical rebound is possible in the short term after the selloff, overhead pressure remains heavy. The STAR 50’s path determines when hard tech can stabilize—so long as the STAR 50 keeps not stopping its decline, the money-losing effect in hard tech is hard to eliminate.

4. Deep breakdown of the news flow
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Major negative catalysts (core drivers behind today’s drop)**

1. Overseas technology stocks hit again + Middle East uncertainty
The conflict between Iran and the U.S. escalated again, combined with the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, pushing up international oil prices and suppressing global risk appetite. Overseas tech stocks kept weakening, casting a negative mapping onto A-share tech sectors.

2. ChangXin Tech’s $29.5 billion IPO “bloodletting” effect continues to build
On July 9, ChangXin Tech disclosed its intention document for an STAR board listing. It is expected to officially apply for subscriptions on July 16, raising 2.32B yuan—the biggest IPO record within the year. Such a giant IPO creates a clear expectation of capital diverting away from existing funds.

3. SK hynix plunges by over 15%, hitting A-share memory supply chain
SK hynix’s share price was shocked by news that Korean local brokers, such as KIS, lowered their second-quarter earnings outlook. The stock fell more than 15% all day, and continued to pressure A-share memory supply chains.

4. Congestion risk in the hard-tech trading—concentrated release
The tech growth tracks that had seen big prior gains and high crowding now face pressure. In the electronic sector, dynamic PE is around 42x; after a too-fast short-term rally, it met a stampede-style pullback.

5. Dense expansion announcements in the fiber optics industry trigger concerns about a supply-demand reversal
A batch of expansion plans were announced frequently by companies such as Han’s Laser, FiberHome, and LingYi Zhizao. The fiber optics industry may fall back into another “cycle curse.” The fiber optics concept got heavily hammered today.

Major positive catalysts (core upside direction against the tide)

1. The State Council approves the “14th Five-Year Plan / Fifteen-Five Plan” for promoting the development of Traditional Chinese Medicine
Recently, the State Council approved in principle the “15th Five-Year Plan” for promoting the development of TCM. It lays out a top-level roadmap for coordinated development of TCM undertakings, industries, and culture over the next five years. The Chinese medicine sector, boosted by this, stayed active against the tide throughout the day.
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2. Ministry of Commerce imposes temporary export prohibition management on helium**
On July 10, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs released an announcement to impose temporary export prohibition management on helium. The concept of specialty electronic gases was active: 九丰能源 hit a second consecutive limit-up, and 水发燃气 hit the daily limit up in one go.

3. Multiple semiconductor-related ETF shares jumped against the trend
Last week, the semiconductor equipment ETF Cathay (159516) saw its shares increase by 32.1 billion units, ranking first; the chip ETF Huaxia (159995) saw share growth of 11 billion units, ranking second. Funds took the route of ETFs to bottom-fish semiconductors against the trend!

4. Positive mid-year earnings guidance from several companies
Power Investment Water & Hydropower expects net profit to increase year-on-year by around 76.73% in the first half; 北斗星通 expects growth of 236.8%-342.6%; 天原股份 expects growth of 981%-1282%; 北京君正 expects growth of 431%-531%. Hard-tech fundamentals are still being continuously validated.

5. 汇成股份’ subsidiary plans to invest no less than 7.5 billion yuan to build an advanced packaging R&D and industrialization project

5. Sector linkage and hotspot intensity analysis
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Sector strength ranking**
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1. Chinese medicine / healthcare (Grade B+) — Policy catalyst, active against the tide!**

Strength analysis:
The State Council’s approval of the “15th Five-Year Plan” for promoting TCM directly catalyzed it. 陇神戎发 hit a 20CM limit-up, 天目药业 hit limit-up, 九芝堂 hit limit-up, and 上海凯宝 rose over 10%. 立方制药 made a 3-day consecutive limit-up.

Sector characterization:
A rebound driven by policy tailwinds after oversold conditions. Since October 2024, the CSI Chinese medicine index has cumulatively fallen over 30%, and news stimulation makes it prone to a retaliatory rebound. However, overall performance of the Chinese medicine sector has not been very good—policy stimulation may be hard to reverse the industry’s fundamental downturn trend.

2. Banks / high-dividend yield (Grade B) — Defensive regrouping, strengthening against the tide!

Strength analysis:
The banking industry received net inflow of over 3.9 billion yuan from main/large funds. 苏州银行 and 宁波银行 both rose over 5%; the four major state-owned banks (“ICBC, CCB, ABC, BOC”) all rose over 2%. 长江电力 and 华能水电 both recorded 9 consecutive bullish daily candles.
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Sector characterization:**
Low risk appetite capital flows back into cash-like assets. Dividend stocks’ upside or downside elasticity is generally limited; chasing or killing on volatility is not advisable.

3. Electronic specialty gases / helium (Grade B) — Policy catalyst, a tug-of-war for sentiment!

Strength analysis:
九丰能源 made two consecutive limit-ups; 水发燃气 hit limit-up in one go. 凯美特气 and 杭氧股份 surged higher then broke their boards.

Sector characterization:
Short-term theme trading driven by policy events. Continuation depends on follow-through of policy implementation.

4. Semiconductors / hard tech (Grade F) — Full collapse, firmly avoid!

Strength analysis:
香农芯创 and 长盈通 fell to 20CM limit-down; 兆易创新, 京东方A, 生益科技, 中天科技, and other heavyweights all hit limit-down. Nearly 30 stocks within the sector hit limit-down. 中船特气 fell 16.83%.

Sector characterization:
The trend has completely broken down, with a stampede-style liquidation in progress. Memory and AI hardware supply chain “popular” stocks that led earlier keep getting pulled down in batches.

5. Commercial aerospace (Grade F) — Good news cashed out, the whole front collapsed!

Strength analysis:
Last Friday’s industry tailwind landed, and today it played out as a “good news cashed out” pattern. Short-term capital concentrated to take profits, and the whole sector fell sharply across the board. After a batch of limit-ups, a batch of limit-downs—this is one of the directions with the most limit-down moves today.

Sector characterization:
A complete retreat of theme speculation dominated by quant funds. Any rebound is a chance to exit.

6.龙虎榜—institutions and speculators’ true stance
**
Institution moves**

Top 3 institutions net inflow:

1. 拓荆科技: institution net inflow of 2.32B yuan

2. 华天科技: institution net inflow of 417M yuan

3. 欧林生物: institution net inflow of 276M yuan

Top 3 institutions net outflow:

1. 九丰能源: institution net outflow of 0.46 billion yuan

2. 合肥城建: institution net outflow of 259M yuan

3. 长源东谷: institution net outflow of 0.253 billion yuan

Other big moves by institutions:
**
中船特气: among the top in institution net outflow**

Brother Ge’s take:
Institutions are seeing “violent internal differentiation” within hard tech. 拓荆科技 received 253M yuan of institution net inflow, becoming the first target for institutions to bottom-fish against the trend—there are still funds allocating in semiconductor equipment. But 华天科技, despite institution net inflow of 2.32B yuan, still fell 4.66%—institutions cannot take the selling pressure. 九丰能源 saw institution net outflow of 0.46 billion yuan—speculator-driven theme bets were decisively cashed out by institutions.

Institutions’ attitude is very clear:

Only add to positions against the trend on semiconductor equipment leaders with real industrial logic (拓荆科技); everything else gets reduced!

Speculator moves

中信重工 (601608):
“宁波桑田路” net inflow of 66.6 million yuan, ranking first among speculator席位 net inflows.

哈药股份 (600664):
国泰海通南京太平南路 had an outflow of 135 million yuan.
**
Quant funds:**
Quant funds’ activity has clearly decreased.
**
Brother Ge’s take:**
Top speculators have shrunk their battlefield. The consecutive limit-up promotion rate is only 33.33%; short-term continuation power remains in a “hell mode.” Excluding 恒尚节能 (10 days, 9 boards) with an independent trend, truly few consecutive limit-up stocks have both sector impact and coordinated turnover leadership. Speculators and institutions contracting simultaneously—market sentiment has dropped to its lowest point!

7. Full view of the consecutive-limit-up ladder
**
Today, 32 stocks hit limit up; the total number of consecutive-limit-up stocks is 9; the promotion rate for consecutive-limit-ups is 33.33%.**
**
High-level leader:**

恒尚节能: 10 days and 9 boards—M&A restructuring + independent trend, no sector-driven effect, a chip gap, and huge risk! The company announcement says the share price has seriously deviated from fundamentals

ST龙元: 4 consecutive boards

3 consecutive boards:

贵绳股份—commercial aerospace concept; company says revenue from the aerospace field is less than 1%

亚联机械—performance beats expectations

立方制药—health/medicine concept

2 consecutive boards:

哈药股份、华建集团、沃顿科技、联环药业、九丰能源、中信重工

Breakdown and limit-down focus:

中鼎股份, 欢瑞世纪, 柘中股份, etc. failed to advance and all fell more than 4%

香农芯创: 20CM limit down

兆易创新、京东方A、生益科技、中天科技, and other heavyweights: limit down

Analysis of consecutive boards:
The maximum consecutive-limit-up height is still only 3 boards; short-term continuation sentiment is extremely sluggish. Excluding 恒尚节能 with an independent trend, there are almost no true “turnover-leading” exchange leaders with sector effect and unified capital force. Capital would rather go to high-dividend yield to seek safety than play small-cap consecutive-limit-up battles—risk appetite has dropped to its lowest point!

8. Core outlook for July 14 (Tuesday)
**
Index judgment**
**
Shanghai Index:**
Closed at 3913 points; for the first time in 15 months it fell below the 1-year line. The integer level at 3900 points was kept just barely. Daily KDJ entered a deep oversold zone, with a possibility of a retaliatory rebound in the short term. But the 5-day moving averages above and near the 1-year line will still exert heavy pressure on the index. If it cannot get back above the 1-year line within three days, watch for a pullback toward 3800 points.

STAR 50:
Down 3.42%, at 1994 points. A sentiment barometer for hard tech. If the STAR 50 continues to sell off, the “money-losing effect” in hard tech will persist.
**
Biggest opportunity point:**
Oversold rebound—after two consecutive days of heavy losses, the Shanghai Index has a relatively high probability of a rebound, even a strong pullback.

Biggest risk point:
A trend downshift after losing the 1-year line. If tomorrow cannot recover the 1-year line, the medium-term trend will turn pessimistic. The risk of crowded trading in the electronics sector is still being released.

Core variables

1. Can the semiconductor sector stop the decline: whether leaders such as 香农芯创 and 兆易创新 can stabilize will determine whether the market’s sentiment can repair as a whole.

2. Can trading volume be maintained: can the 2.82 trillion turnover be held? If it continues to shrink, the market will fall into a vicious cycle of liquidity shortage.

3. The 1-year line battle: whether 3913 points can quickly recover the 1-year line is key to the medium-term trend.

Core direction (most important)

First direction (defensive mainline): High-dividend / dividends—banks, coal, and hydropower

Logic:
Hard tech is being stamped out via liquidation; low risk-appetite capital flows back into cash-like assets. The CSI high-dividend index has already fallen over 12% in the second quarter and, after approaching the 120-month moving average, it is prone to an oversold rebound.
**
Core stocks:**

1. 长江电力 (600900): 9 consecutive bullish daily candles; set a new intra-year high. A benchmark high-dividend stock with the strongest trend.

2. 苏州银行 (002966): up over 5%. A leading force in the bank sector.

3. 宁波银行 (002142): up over 5%.

Second direction (policy-driven): Chinese medicine / healthcare

Logic:
The State Council approved the “15th Five-Year Plan” for promoting the development of TCM. With the sector’s cumulative decline over 30%, the power for a rebound from oversold levels is strong.

Core stocks:

1. 陇神戎发 (300534): 20CM limit-up. A sentiment leader in Chinese medicine.
2. 九芝堂 (000989): limit-up.
3. 天目药业 (600671): limit-up.
4. 立方制药 (003020): 3 consecutive boards.

Note: The overall performance of the Chinese medicine sector has not been impressive. Policy stimulation may be hard to reverse the industry’s fundamental downtrend. This is only for short-term tactical games; it should not be loaded up with heavy positions.

Third direction (left-side layout): Semiconductor equipment—institutions’ contrarian bottom-fishing direction
**
Logic:**
拓荆科技 received 417M yuan of institution net inflow—institutions added against the trend to semiconductor equipment leaders during the crash. Multiple semiconductor-related ETFs saw big share increases last week. The logic that WSTS predicts the global semiconductor market will reach $1.51 trillion in 2026 has not been falsified; it only needs digestion of short-term trading crowding.**

Core stocks:

1. 拓荆科技 (688072): institution inflow of 28.2k yuan; northbound net outflow of 716 million yuan—first target for domestic institutions’ contrarian bottom-fishing. But note there is huge divergence between domestic and foreign capital, so the short-term may still be volatile.
2. 通富微电 (002156): main net inflow of 1.174 billion yuan, ranking first. A leader in advanced packaging; funds are taking over against the trend.

Note:

The semiconductor sector as a whole is still in the stampede-style liquidation phase. Left-side positioning only suits staggered entries at low levels; it should not be loaded all at once. Wait for sector index stabilization signals (such as shrinking-volume doji stars, leaders no longer making new lows) before increasing positions.

Fourth direction (firmly avoid):

Semiconductor memory / AI compute hardware (兆易创新 limit down, 香农芯创 20CM limit down—stampede liquidation not finished yet)

Fiber optics / CPO / PCB (dense expansion announcements raise concerns about a supply-demand reversal; the sector was hammered)

Commercial aerospace (after good news cashed out, batch limit-downs; quant-dominated speculation completely retreated)

MLCC / cultivated diamonds (sector laggards)

All small- and mid-cap “poor performance” stocks (CSI 2000 keeps weakening; valuation mean reversion has a long road)

9. Summary
**
Three core conclusions:**
**
First:**
$2.82 trillion shrinking-volume heavy selloff; the Shanghai Index fell below the 1-year line after 15 months; over 400 stocks in the whole market hit limit down or fell more than 10%. From the “V-shaped offensive” on July 9 to the “full-scale collapse” on July 13—just two trading days, sentiment fell from the boiling point to the ice point!

Second:
Hard tech underwent stampede-style liquidation; the electronic sector had single-day net outflow of over $52 billion. Memory, AI compute hardware, fiber optics, and MLCC all plunged across the board. The most crowded tracks earlier have now become the biggest bleeding points. But semiconductor equipment leader 拓荆科技 received institution contrarian net inflow of 2.32B yuan—industrial trend hasn’t changed; only short-term chips need to be liquidated.

Third:
On July 14, the market entered the “1-year line battle.” After two consecutive days of heavy setbacks, the short term has a possibility of a retaliatory rebound. But overhead pressure around the 5-day moving averages and the 1-year line remains heavy. Take profits on rebound (reduce), don’t chase highs—only do the certain oversold rebounds and defensive regrouping. This is the most rational strategy right now.

Core thinking for July 14:

**For short-term tactical games, focus on the defensive opportunities of high-dividend (长江电力, 苏州银行) and Chinese medicine (陇神戎发, 九芝堂). For left-side positioning, focus on contrarian bottom-fishing opportunities in semiconductor equipment (拓荆科技, 通富微电).**Firmly avoid semiconductor memory / AI compute hardware, fiber optics/CPO, commercial aerospace, MLCC, and small-/mid-cap poor-performance stocks.

No chasing highs—only defend at disagreement-low positions and move with the trend! Below the 1-year line, cash is king!

Special thanks to @1204清秋 @moonlight411 @成江成河 @wydLuck @东方不服 @小宝多肉 @水与鱼 @Bellaqi @慢慢回血 @wydLuck @小bC @对穿肠 @大A球迷 @duansheli @马栏山旺德府弯弯 @三叶梅 @hyzhang73 @稻草哥哥 @金榜挂名 @moonlight411 @wydLuck @八金姥 @曲线前面 @Laola @ZHONG生 @L渝鹞破雾 @洪文伟 @八金姥 @天人合一001 @金财选手 @云海一笑 @东方不服 @黄雅文 @珊Ss @wydLuck @潕銘 @稻草哥哥 @ljfkkst @曲线前面 @x小九儿 @兴2013 @稻草哥哥 @dree @gztonysir for the rewards.

Special thanks to @云海一笑 @毛哥炒股 @雪地画家0116 @曲线前面 @自由zy @苏渣 @舞梦墨 @兴2013 @退学炒A股 @林林一歌 @啧啧啧啧1 @随遇而安z for the encouragement.

The above is a static replay; for specific matters, we still need to flexibly adjust in real time according to market dynamics. It is only a macro framework. Please don’t cling to past facts, don’t copy mechanically or hard-chase—otherwise it may lead to being off track and cause thinking to become fixed.

The above views and replies are only for replaying and research/method use. The mentioned stocks do not constitute any investment advice, and we do not assume any guarantee responsibility. All sharing and exchanges do not form actual execution advice. We do not promise any returns. Gains and losses are your own. The stock market involves risk; invest cautiously. Wishing everyone a smooth investment, a happy life, and a harmonious and fulfilling family. May your stocks roar and may everything go your way.

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