July 13, 2026 recap: The silence of 172 stocks that hit the daily limit down—going all-cash is the most lavish mercy of the “zero-point” period

After the close today, I stared at the screen for a long time, unable to say anything. There was no black swan, no sudden negative policy, and not even a decent “big event”—yet the market still collapsed. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.06%, the ChiNext Index dropped 3.10%, more than 4,600 stocks in the two markets declined, and 172 hit the daily limit down. This is not a correction—it’s a systematic sell-off, a mass exodus of capital at the emotional low point.

I scoured all the news: no war, no policy shock, no earnings blow-ups—only these cold labels: “no sustained momentum in the sector,” “no money-making effect,” “market cycle: ice-point period,” “sentiment cycle: ice-point period.” It’s as if the market has been drained of blood; it doesn’t even have the strength to struggle.

I. The call was right—being in cash was correct

Before the market opened this morning, my pre-market plan was written very clearly: “Tomorrow’s pick: T or go flat.” The pre-open order stream also reminded me to stay in cash; after the opening, it reminded me again to stay in cash—so I did my best.

This wasn’t a guess. I saw it—every limit-up chain broke; the second board was basically the ceiling; after a break in the limit-up streak, only two stocks remained that could still string boards together. Capital collectively retreated from high-position tech-themed tracks, flooding instead into medicine, banks, and oil & gas. The number of limit-down names yesterday had already been approaching a hundred; if today continued the volume-amplified sell-off, it would inevitably turn into an ice-point.

And the result fully matched the forecast.

• Eston (robot “main force”), which I held yesterday: today, as the whole sector sold off and it broke down, I decisively cleared the position;

• Xingye Co., Ltd. (semiconductor materials): similarly, it moved with the outflow of storage/semiconductor funds; when the early rebound lacked strength, I exited.
Final position: 0%.
This isn’t luck—it’s discipline. In an ice-point period, not losing is making money, and being in cash is winning. Given today’s brutality—172 limit downs—if you were fully or heavily loaded yesterday, you would have lost at least 5 percentage points more. This isn’t comfort; it’s real capital preservation.

I often tell people: the market is always right; the only one wrong is us. Today it used 172 limit-downs to tell us: the limit-up game no longer works; even trends are catching up on the downside. Defense is the only way out—but defense isn’t a magic shield. When everyone wants to hide in defense, defense also becomes a trap.

So, going in cash is the only correct choice.

II. Besides blessings, there’s only more blessings

Writing up to here, I can’t help but choke up a bit. Back then, during post-mortems I could talk at length—breaking down limit-up chains, analyzing tiers, discussing super-nodes, discussing chip storage, and talking about the growth in interim reports. Today, staring at those 172 limit downs, those terms all feel weightless.

That’s the market’s most ruthless side: in a systematic sell-off, no matter how hard an individual logic is, it can’t beat the collective selling pressure. What you can do is simply steer the ship back to shore before the storm hits.

So besides wishing everyone well in my heart, I truly don’t know what else I can say. I wish friends still in the market don’t get too badly hurt; I wish friends who got buried can get a chance to turn around with fresh capital; I wish us ourselves—during the upcoming ice-point, control your hands, and wait for the next node.

Other than that, I won’t say more. In Shui-Mo Jiang-Nan, there’s a brushstroke called “dry brush.” The ink runs out, but the intent isn’t fully exhausted. Today’s tape is that dry brush—can’t write height, can’t build a tier, can’t find opportunity, only a dry, desiccated shade of green. I won’t force it, and I won’t hard trade. Return the position to zero, pull your mind back in, and wait for the number of those 172 limit downs to come down, wait for limit-up heights to reopen, and wait for capital to come out of defense and return to the main line.

III. Tomorrow to watch: faint sparks in the ice-point

Even though today had no strength for joking around, the post-mortem still has to be done, and life still has to go on.

Tomorrow’s key observation points:

1. Whether the number of limit-down stocks can drop sharply from 172 to within 20—this is the first signal of ice-point repair;

2. Whether limit-up height can reappear with 5 boards or more, and whether at least one surviving “live wire” can show sector-leading board effects;

3. Whether trading volume can stop falling and stabilize—if volume no longer keeps shrinking sharply, it suggests selling pressure has been exhausted;

4. Whether defense sectors (medicine, banks) show divergence turning into alignment, or divergence plus further underperformance. If medicine keeps lagging, it means the ice-point is deepening; if medicine stays strong, it means capital is still avoiding risk.

Tomorrow’s watch (more defensive / trend-repair, not “limit-up gambling”):

• Medicine (traditional Chinese medicine): today’s only net inflow pocket of funds. If tomorrow’s number of limit-downs doesn’t keep worsening, the defense grouping may continue—only watch, don’t easily take action.

• Banks, oil & gas extraction, and power generation: also defensive directions—watch whether funds continue to group.

• Hengshang Energy Conservation (sentiment anchor): today it broke down after losing a board and fell hard. As the prior high “leader,” if tomorrow it doesn’t keep hitting limit down and funds try to jump the board, you can observe the sentiment repair signal. If it continues to be hammered into a dull sell-off, then the ice-point is deepening—stay in cash.

Tomorrow’s trading plan:

Primarily stay in cash and observe. If there’s a rebound early, don’t chase; if the selling continues, don’t look, don’t move, and don’t catch falling knives. Wait for clear signs of stabilization (limit downs < 50, limit-up height ≥ 3, and volume stabilizes with a sell-off bottoming out) before considering small position trial trades. Since we’re already in cash today, there’s no need to rush—tomorrow isn’t the only day.

IV. The “dry brush” in Shui-Mo Jiang-Nan is meant for the next spring

Shui-Mo Jiang-Nan’s painting theory says “use white to mean black,” and the empty space is the most weighty. Trading is the same: staying still on a deep ice-point day isn’t fear—it’s keeping the initiative in your hands. In the day with 172 limit downs, being in cash is the most valuable move you can make all year.

Besides blessings, it’s still blessings. May we all hold the principal and hold patience before the next dawn.

Wait for the wind to stop, wait for the waves to stir, and wait for the market to give its answer again.