Profit and loss share the same root—wrong is wrong because the prior run-up before the storage phase didn’t get captured, which led to FOMO and then going all-in, afraid that you’d miss the next chance again. In the end, it’s still losing to your own human nature—losing to greed. This is a heavy lesson. Take it as a warning.

But as long as big tech capital expenditure doesn’t slow down, storage can still rise back! Several key time points: Thursday’s TSMC—very likely to become this quarter’s earnings guidance. Whether big techs have actually slowed capital spending will show up in TSMC’s earnings report. After that, it’s the collective big tech earnings reports in the 20th-plus: Google, Amazon, and Meta—pay special attention.

Big tech capital expenditure will very likely continue. Meta has already announced new investment, and Amazon has also already borrowed money. Big techs don’t dare to slow down now—because slowing down means falling behind. Especially with the chase against OpenAI and Anthropic, the newer challengers—how could big tech dare to stop? That’s a bet on their future.

Of course, I still have to say this: if they really do slow down, then it might truly be over—cut your losses and buy big tech.

Discord in your profile, buy the dip, hold long term.