The U.S. Clarity Act enters a critical four-week window, as Trump’s “hundreds of billions in crypto income” becomes an obstacle to passage.

The U.S. crypto industry’s fate is entering the final showdown! According to the policy newsletter Crypto In America, the U.S. Senate has officially resumed session, leaving only the last four weeks of the golden window before the August recess. This is seen as the final practical chance this year to pass the comprehensive crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act. Although the bill this week saw the release of key consolidated draft text, variables such as the provisions on officials’ conflicts of interest and the shrinking number of votes from Republicans have left talks between the parties in a stalemate.
(Background: The U.S. Clarity Act enforcement provisions are stuck in a deadlock—only an 8-week legislative window remains; industry and enforcement are at odds)
(Additional context: Big news! The U.S. Clarity Act clarity bill successfully passed the Senate Banking Committee. Next, it will be sent to the full Senate for a vote)

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• This week saw the release of consolidated new text; two major unresolved disputes are in focus
• Divergent industry views: stronger momentum vs falling behind on innovation
• Regulatory storm tracking: Custodia Bank files a petition with the U.S. Supreme Court

U.S. efforts to advance legislation on crypto market structure have formally entered the most critical “final countdown” phase.

According to the latest edition of the well-known policy newsletter Crypto In America released on July 13, 2026 (Monday), with the U.S. Senate formally resuming session, there are only about four weeks left before Congress recesses in August. These four weeks are widely viewed by both Wall Street and the crypto industry as the last practical opportunity this year to pass the comprehensive crypto regulatory bill—the Clarity Act. Because the bill needs an absolute majority of 60 votes in the Senate to move forward, in the event of changes in Republican seat strength, bipartisan Democrats’ support has become the fatal deciding factor for whether the bill can get through.

This week saw the release of consolidated new text; two major unresolved disputes are in focus

The report says this week’s Clarity Act will reach a major milestone: Congress is expected to release consolidated updated bill text combining the versions from both the “Senate Banking Committee” and the “Agriculture Committee.” This text will lay bare the negotiating cards for both sides, showing which key provisions are preserved and which remain stuck in an impasse. The two major unresolved issues that the market is most focused on are as follows:

• Legal status for non-custodial software developers: The bill’s Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act aims to clarify that when non-custodial software developers publish code, they should not be mechanically categorized as “money transmitters.” However, whether this provision will be substantially rewritten due to strong concerns from enforcement units and Democrats remains unclear.
• A conflicts-of-interest provision that directly targets Trump: So far, Congress has not reached an agreement with the White House on a “morals/conflicts-of-interest provision.” Democrats and some Republican lawmakers (such as North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis) have strongly demanded that the crypto business interests of government officials must be tightly regulated—especially restrictions on crypto-related income earned by President Trump personally exceeding $1 billion last year. This provision has been viewed as the core variable determining whether the bill can secure the 60-vote threshold to pass.

In addition, the death of South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, along with Mitch McConnell’s absence, has further squeezed Republicans’ vote margin in the Senate, leaving the legislation with extremely low tolerance for error.

Divergent industry views: stronger momentum vs falling behind on innovation

As the deadline looms, the views of crypto policy experts are also sharply split. Kristin Smith, president of the Solana policy research institute, is optimistic. She believes current issues such as conflicts of interest can all be resolved through negotiation, and she expects that after the bill text is released this week, legislative momentum will increase again, with a chance to bring it to a vote before the August recess.

By contrast, Alex Thorn, head of research at asset manager Galaxy Digital, is much more cautious—he has cut the odds of the bill passing to 50%. Thorn warns that next the Senate still has core priorities in line, such as the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), and time has already been severely compressed. If the Clarity Act cannot pass this session, the United States will fall completely behind overseas jurisdictions in the process of Web3 financial innovation.

Regulatory storm tracking: Custodia Bank files a petition with the U.S. Supreme Court

Beyond the legislative game, a legal showdown between U.S. regulators and crypto banks has also reached its peak. Custodia Bank, a crypto bank regulated in Wyoming, has officially filed a certiorari petition with the U.S. Supreme Court, asking the Court to review the long-running dispute involving its master account with the Federal Reserve (Fed).

The central focus of this case is whether the local Federal Reserve Bank has legal authority to refuse a fully compliant bank, which holds state charters, from directly connecting to the Fed’s payment system. Custodia argues that this directly involves the balance between “state authority vs. federal power,” as well as the fundamental question of whether innovative banks can fairly access traditional financial systems. In the eyes of the industry, this case is a typical historical example of attempts—during the Biden era and even the Trump administration—by certain officials to choke off crypto banks, often described as “Operation Choke Point 2.0.”

In addition to the Clarity Act and the Custodia case, this week’s overall economy will also see the release of U.S. CPI and PPI data, along with dense speeches by Fed officials (including Hsu, Waller, and others) on financial regulation and AI. The global digital asset markets are certain to experience a turbulent week.