Will Trump take over the Strait of Hormuz? Another macro bearish spark for the “big pie”

$BTC
The U.S. forcibly intervening in strait control will inevitably intensify tensions with Iran. Uncertainty for navigation will keep escalating. As soon as the market starts trading the “risk of a shutdown of navigation,” panic on the crude oil supply side will directly push up crude oil prices. Right now, oil prices have already jumped higher due to geopolitical developments, and there is still room for further upside afterward

$ETH
Oil prices are a key driver of U.S. CPI. When oil prices rise, the pace of inflation cooling slows directly—or even rebounds. The market is already constantly weighing the timing and magnitude of the Fed’s rate cuts; once inflation starts to pick up, expectations for rate cuts will be discounted immediately. There is also no reason to rule out the market re-pricing the risk of rate hikes

At present, the “big pie” is fundamentally a high-beta risk asset, tightly tied to the liquidity depth of the U.S. stock market. As expectations for tightening dollar liquidity heat up, it’s effectively “siphoning liquidity” from all risk assets; the “big pie,” with the highest volatility, will feel pressure first#伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡