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Price recovered. Conviction hasn't.
$BTC is back near $64K, but the underlying picture is less convincing.
Spot demand remains weak. On-chain activity is still muted. NUPL sits in negative territory, showing the market hasn't fully shifted back into a confident profit phase.
Institutions continue to accumulate through ETFs, while the options market stays defensively positioned instead of pricing aggressive upside.
This looks more like an institution-led recovery than a broad retail-driven breakout.
Until spot volume and on-chain participation strengthen, it's worth treating this rally with measured optimism rather than euphoria.
Smart money is showing up.
The crowd isn't.
Yet.