[Red packet] 7.13: The risks were already flagged earlier—today’s risk lesson, all retail investors should take it.

Introduction: “Winds rise from the very tips of green leaves; waves form between small ripples.”[Taoqiba]
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With today’s market, everyone’s heart should feel uncomfortable. The Shanghai Composite is down 2.06%, the Shenzhen Component is down 3.48%, the ChiNext index is down 3.10%, and the STAR 50 is down 3.42%. Across the entire market, more than 4,600 stocks are down, and more than 170 hit the daily limit-down. With this data laid out, there’s no need for Michelangelo to embellish emotions—everyone can feel the cold in their account today.**

But today Michelangelo wants to say one thing first: this risk hasn’t started today. During this period, the public area has repeatedly reminded everyone that the market has entered a phase of strong divergence. Risks in high-level directions are spreading, the technology “capacity” is showing signs of loosening, indices have consecutively failed to hold key levels, and sentiment is no longer an environment of mindless offense. Especially after the morning session opened, commercial aerospace was below expectations, and Michelangelo kept reminding in the comment section: if you can be in cash, be in cash; if you can defend, defend; don’t rush in, don’t force trades, and don’t treat a weak market as an opportunity market.

Why keep reminding?

Because the most painful part of this kind of market isn’t that the index is falling—it’s that many people don’t want to admit that risk has arrived. The market has already told you something is off; the high-level direction has already started to catch up on declines; the losing-effect has already spread. Yet many people still think, “Wait a bit—maybe a repair is coming.” The result isn’t a repair, but an even bigger pullback.

The most important thing in trading isn’t taking action every day, but knowing when you shouldn’t trade. In a market like today, being in cash isn’t being timid—being in cash is understanding. Defense isn’t a lack of skill—defense is trading discipline. Making fewer mistakes isn’t failure—making fewer losses is victory. A truly mature trader isn’t someone who thinks about making money every day; it’s someone who can hold their hand when they should defend, and who can actually listen to warnings before risk arrives.

Michelangelo emphasized defense throughout the morning, not to look like he’s being extra cautious, but out of genuine hope that everyone won’t get repeatedly harvested by the market in a situation like this. The purpose of breaking down the market in the public area isn’t to make everyone see a direction and rush upward—it’s to help everyone know when to attack, when to defend, and when to wait for the market to give its own answer.

If you still can’t master the three quantitative arbitrage “styles,” then seriously learn them in August! The reason people in the venue have paid countless “tuition fees” is that they still don’t want to learn from those who have already figured it out. This is a huge paradox. I believe many teachers have an idea: if you can really make money, why be a teacher? It only means they’re still too narrow-minded. Some people teach like they’re running a pig-slaughtering scam; some teach simply to help everyone step less into traps and be killed less by the market. This path can cause countless contestants to go bankrupt. Michelangelo holds one belief: can help as much as possible, count the help. And it’s not asking everyone to learn only from me—if everyone thinks a teacher has real skills and fits you, you should learn a bit early on; it’s possible to give the market plenty of “tuition fees”! It depends on how everyone chooses teachers: 1) look at the teacher’s strength, 2) look at how well you choose the teacher, 3) look at fate!

Today many people will feel bad, regret, and think why they didn’t reduce positions earlier, why they kept holding on despite clearly seeing the risks. Family members, Michelangelo understands this kind of emotion. The most real pain for retail investors isn’t losing money itself—it’s realizing only after you’ve lost that the risk was already on the board, you just didn’t execute.

True高手 aren’t the ones who buy limit-up every time; they’re the ones who can hold back their hands in a market like this. Many family members always feel being in cash is uncomfortable, thinking that if you don’t buy, you’ll miss opportunities. Actually, the most expensive thing in trading isn’t missing—it’s losses. If you miss it, the opportunity will come again; if you take a big loss, your mindset, position size, and timing all go wrong together.

For family members who can stay in cash today, you really should give yourself a like. You didn’t make money today, but you preserved your principal, preserved your mindset, and preserved the initiative to keep watching the market tomorrow.

For family members who are already losing today, don’t blame yourself too much either. The market is like this—it will educate everyone again and again through bouts of big divergence. Losing money isn’t scary. What’s scary is after you lose, you don’t review, don’t summarize, and don’t know how to avoid it next time.

The key thing to remember today isn’t how much some direction fell, but this sentence: when risk comes, first survive; only after you survive do you have the next opportunity. The worse the行情, the more you must rely on a system; the more chaotic the board, the more you can’t rely on feelings.

Thanks for everyone’s support; likes, points, “oil-sending,” and push-broadcasting are all appreciated. To be honest, trading stocks isn’t easy for everyone, and some are also carrying responsibilities for their families. Michelangelo truly hopes to help everyone. You can take a look at my journey so far—my homepage pins that thing at the top. This is my comeback path after losing 2.83T. I hope everyone reads it carefully: it’s also to let more people see how difficult this stock market life is, and to better remind everyone to be cautious when trading stocks! You can also give this post more likes; use 100 points more to boost the reward data and send some “oil” too! If you do well, don’t forget to share practical knowledge and help everyone step less into traps! Let this care and sincerity keep being passed along—thank you, everyone!

Reward 25,000 points to join the Golden Sparkles family. If you understand, you’ll realize trading is really like this—you can share it with friends and relatives to learn the trading way of the VIs! The learning opportunity of “Mi’s Nine Dragon Technique” will upgrade and return in 2 or 3 weeks, bringing a more efficient system to share with everyone. Stay tuned!

Honestly, from now on whenever everyone reads posts, first reward 100 points—build a good learning habit. Is that money not much for stock trading; it’s not even enough to reach 5 yuan of transaction fees—but everyone can spend 2 yuan to read a high-quality review post. Learn many effective trading models. I believe everyone can figure out how cost-effective this is. But if you don’t spend 2 yuan, you won’t read seriously—you’ll just look at a “waterfall ledger.” You don’t need me to算 this账; everyone can figure it out. In daily life, you still spend 16 to buy an entire package of some short drama—so how come in your own trading, you’re unwilling even to spend 100 points to read a high-quality post? Michelangelo isn’t greedy for everyone’s these 100 points; it’s genuinely for your good. Only when you put something in will you cherish it, read seriously, and ultimately obtain something more valuable!
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7.10: Open lower and keep falling—keep trapping people! Commercial aerospace opened and immediately cashed out; in the morning, technology semiconductor saw some rotation/return but without follow-through; then it followed the overseas market’s big drop again. In the afternoon, there was even less support—massive limit-downs, with everything going down with sand and silt
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I. The overall market**
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Market volume 2.83T, shrinkage 576B; 30 stocks hit limit-up, 172 hit limit-down. The yellow and white lines collectively smashed downward—sentiment ebbed!**

Today’s A-shares is a typical one-way weak market. The three major indices opened lower and kept drifting down; all day there was almost no respectable resistance from bulls. As soon as the morning session opened, it was already off: weights couldn’t hold the index up, themes couldn’t catch sentiment, and the technology direction didn’t form an effective repair. In the afternoon, the indices continued to move down; the number of limit-downs expanded clearly. The losing-effect spread from high-level themes to capacity-core stocks, from small-cap stocks to weight-and-technology. In the end, it formed the broad sell-off pattern today.

That’s why Michelangelo kept reminding in the morning: if you can be in cash, be in cash. Not because Michelangelo doesn’t look favorably on the market afterward, but because at this node, it’s simply not an environment suitable for forcing trades. Do you remember Michelangelo’s analysis of last Friday’s index in the previous recap?

Today the Shanghai Composite closed at 3,913.79 points. After clearly breaking below the 4,000-point integer level, it continued downward to confirm weakness. The 4,000-point level has flipped from prior psychological support into an overhead pressure zone. After the index broke it, if it can’t quickly reclaim it, it means short-term capital doesn’t recognize this area; the market needs to find new support. At the moment, we’re looking at the prior low on 3.23 at 3,974.68. After that, it depends on whether it can hold. If it can’t hold, the downtrend is already formed, and everyone should understand what that implies, right? If tomorrow has a volume-backed repair that returns above the moving annual line, then there’s still a trend for an upward rebound and we can be more actively bullish. In this stage, don’t easily “recover the dead”; right-side opportunities are safer than left-side ones!

Across the entire market, more than 170 stocks hit limit-down today. This isn’t ordinary divergence—it’s clearly risk being released. If the number of limit-downs can’t drop quickly, short-term sentiment will be hard to repair immediately. Many family members lost money today. Tomorrow’s first reaction might be to look for a rebound, to do a repair, and to try to earn back the losses. But Michelangelo wants to remind everyone: the bigger the drop, the more you can’t rush to break the rhythm.

A big drop can indeed lead to a repair, but a repair doesn’t mean opportunities are everywhere. A weak repair gives you a chance to reduce losses and correct mistakes; a strong repair is the chance to observe and then attack again. If tomorrow is only a low-open pulse without volume, without core directions, and without limit-down repair, don’t chase that kind of rebound. The repair that’s truly tradable must be seen in the market shifting from “limit-down diffusion” to “loss-making sentiment tightening,” from “high-level catch-up declines” to “core direction stabilizing,” from “defensive crowding” to “attack direction rotating back.” Otherwise, if you stayed in cash and dodged a knife today, but then chase randomly into another knife tomorrow, it has no meaning.

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II. Sectors

In terms of themes, the strongest pre-open momentum was pharmaceuticals and industrial gases. After-hours, the market’s upside attack strength was weak, and the indices’ upward momentum was lackluster. The pharmaceutical sector kept strengthening thanks to its defensive/hedging attributes. AI hardware saw only a temporary rebound, and the financial sector only did a phase pulse to support the board, unable to lift overall market sentiment.

Throughout the day, the most significant phenomenon was capital exiting the technology track, becoming the main direction for sell-off. In the afternoon, the market followed overseas Korean stocks again to slump and weaken. During the session, AI software attempted to absorb capital and complete the style shift of “hard tech switching to soft tech,” but market recognition was insufficient and theme fermentation didn’t meet expectations. In the afternoon, the market completely lost rotation rhythm; long sentiment fell to the extreme, leaving the whole market in a state of market “ice point.”

Semiconductors

2 boards: Walton Technology, Jinfeng Energy, Hualian Group
1 board: Hengshang Energy Saving, Renkeng Technology, Shuifa Gas, Kent Catalyst

Jinfeng helium gas orders sparked a single-price limit-up “one-line” fermentation. Did we miss something with the board-lock of Kaimai? Why did Shuifa come first? First, it was adding shares; second, the pre-open bid index was at an “ice point.” The probability of being abruptly smashed after “temporary impulse” would increase. If the semiconductor sector is to strengthen again, the core catalyst is still domestic technology achieving breakthroughs. In addition, a warming of overseas industry-chain linkages could also drive the sector to passively track up. Future bottom-picking and positioning should integrate comprehensive judgment of overseas index trends and cautiously grasp the timing.

Pharmaceuticals

3 boards: Lifang Pharmaceutical
2 boards: Lianhuan Pharmaceutical, Harbin Pharmaceutical
1 board: Yatai Group, Lingkang Pharmaceutical, Longshen Rongfa, Tianmu Pharmaceutical, Jiu Zhitang

The pre-open bid index opened low; Lifang’s bid position was the highest, triggering pharmaceuticals’ defensive/hedging. The principle was that the pharmaceutical constraint—“Pharmaceutical 4 boards”—was suppressed. Chasing as a continuation had no favorable risk-reward. It’s basically impossible for the back row to stay in; the technology returning rotation would only make it…

Commercial aerospace

3 boards: Guizheng Shares
2 boards: CITIC Heavy Industries, Jinfeng Energy

With such strong fermentation on Friday, people really thought it had stood up. At 9:25 it behaved. China Satellite had a pullback/reflux action around the midday. If the sector rotates back again, then following him would be better.

Big consumption

1 board: Dreamhome, Zuming Shares

If you don’t lift the “proper” consumption stocks, you lift these micro-cap hints? If you believe, you get your head blown off; if you don’t believe, sometimes it still steals a 3-board—helpless.

The current market is in a weak cycle with sentiment at an ice point and rotation failing. Overall long sentiment is extremely low. The indices lack strength to push up, and the market slumped again in the afternoon. Risk-hedging sentiment dominates the board: pharmaceuticals and industrial gases strengthen against the trend, while technology-track capital keeps exiting. The switch between AI soft and hard tech hasn’t received market recognition. Theme rotation is completely chaotic; most themes have very poor continuity. At high levels, the continuation risk-reward is extremely low; limit-ups formed from temporary impulse are very easy to be smashed down. You need to be cautious with position sizing, avoid chasing highs, and stay mostly on the sidelines. The core observation targets are the pharmaceutical leader Lifang Pharmaceutical, the commercial aerospace core—China Satellite, and the industrial gases—Jinfeng Energy. The market’s overall risk appetite is extremely low; capital prefers lower-level defensive themes. High-level consecutive limit-ups and technology themes show prominent losing-effects.

III. Core breakdown of the board

Look for the direction of repair. If the direction is wrong, efforts are wasted. For now, we can only sort out the “lone seeds” of each sector. Sector repair means the vanguard. Good things always resist dips and lead gains. Today, those that resist dips are as follows:

1. Switches: StarNet and Ruijie; Ziguang pulled back at the close. Today’s index is down about “-2” quality—tests passed. Tomorrow we’ll see whether there’s overshooting mistakes.

2. Aerospace: China Satellite. Aerospace formed an “inverted inside an outside shadow/inside 阳包阴” pattern; after 11:00 there was a repair action. Quant mindset: it kills the Friday chasing-up capital. Next day it forms an engulfing rebound. Sector reversal means satellite is the core.

3. Semiconductors: Tongfu Microelectronics. Today it should have gone limit-up, but it was dragged by the index. In fact, Tongfu’s positioning is more correct as a retreat dragon. When he hits a limit-up, it’s usually not a good sign. The only choice is to use poison against poison.

Hope everyone understands these few core points on the board—still very helpful!

Everyone is tired seeing it here too; like it and get 100 points going! Let’s go! Thanks for having you—love without words, let’s go together!

IV. Tomorrow’s thinking

On the index: the annual line is broken; tomorrow can’t open higher—it will open lower. Here comes the “needle-probing bottom” again.

On the cycle: in the withdrawal phase, don’t do analysis.

On the node: node failure means both sides kill each other.

On risk appetite: mainly rely on crowding/rotation into positions.

V. Written for the family

Today many family members feel uncomfortable; Michelangelo understands. When the account is in drawdown, you’re most likely to doubt yourself. When the market plunges, you’re most likely to feel that all your previous efforts were wasted. When you see others go into cash and dodge it, and you’re still holding in, your heart feels even worse.

But family members, trading is just like this. It won’t drop less just because you’re sincere; it won’t reward you every day just because you work hard. The market only rewards those who can hold discipline at crucial nodes.

If you listened to the early-morning defense reminders today, and you can stay in cash, then you already won today. If you didn’t completely dodge it, but you know where you went wrong and you know how to handle risk next time, then you also didn’t lose for nothing. If you feel really bad today, then pause first—don’t rush to bring your emotions into tomorrow.

When the market is bad, don’t take it personally. The market won’t give you the opportunity immediately just because you want to get your money back. The worse it gets, the more you must slow down the rhythm, reduce position sizes, and stabilize your mindset.

Michelangelo repeatedly breaks down the board in the public area not to make everyone excited every day, but so that everyone can truly learn how to live through the market. When we can attack, we attack together; when we should defend, we defend together. Trading isn’t something for only one or two days. Whoever can live longer, make fewer major mistakes, and wait for the real行情 that belongs to them.

Today, many people are eating this bowl of noodles and it feels hard to swallow. But don’t be afraid, family members—the market won’t be like this forever. When the storm comes, hold up your umbrella first; when the clouds clear, opportunities will naturally come back.

Review well tonight and rest well. Family members who lost money, don’t entangle yourself. Family members who stayed in cash, don’t get arrogant. Keep watching tomorrow’s board for the answers.

Finally, that same line: risk was already warned early. Defense isn’t retreat—it’s to be able to act better next time. The harder the market, the more you rely on a system; the more chaotic the market is, the more you need to be able to take the reminders in.

Thanks to all the Golden Sparkles family for being with me along the way, and also thanks to the supportive “true learning” fans, gold fans and silver fans. If you enjoyed it, like and add oil on the way. It isn’t easy to break down the board in the public area. Michelangelo hopes everyone isn’t just watching the excitement, but truly learns risk awareness, cycle awareness, and position-size awareness. Love without words—let’s go together.

VI. Practical knowledge collection

[Red packet] A sudden realization after two bankruptcies, pure “dragon” player[
/link]

[link=Y|www.tgb.cn/a/2j3U7MfS7BO][Red packet]6.22: Practical knowledge sharing: how to trade in the withdrawal period

https://www.tgb.cn/a/2g0X43SSedy

2025.5.12 live stream: quantitative play—upgrade version

https://www.tgb.cn/a/2hZVzpSA7za

[Red packet]3.23 weekly: position management practical knowledge sharing,

https://www.tgb.cn/a/2gDeYkw8CuP

[Red packet]9.5 live stream: ultra-short watching—key techniques

https://www.tgb.cn/a/2l69xxRM7mZ

[Red packet]9.12 live stream: ultra-short review—key points

https://www.tgb.cn/a/2lhLwDHm7jd

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Thank the following brothers and sisters for sending “oil”; keep going and don’t forget—you’ll be lucky for ten thousand years!

@文昊1121@操舟又若神@自有相逢@FF天天向上@人类超短研究所@搞钱老兵@我是地瓜种下菜@大A赚钱就辞职@javxsp@ruobing@独D行X侠X@老泪纵横@千小鹤@南油小炒
Thanks to the following brothers and sisters for the rewards; praise a song for you—good fortune in money!
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When Michelangelo spots a good opportunity on the spot, he will share it in the comment section in time—please pay special attention to get the first updates of Michelangelo’s analysis and reminders on the market! If everyone wants to listen to the live streams, you can urge the push-broadcast; once we take the top spot, we can go live anytime!**