Anthropic’s price in the secondary market is going wild again—Caplight’s latest deal-implied valuation is $1.2 trillion, up 24% from the $965 billion Series H in May, and up 550% year-to-date, marking the first time it has surpassed OpenAI (about $908 billion). Claude’s ARR climbed from $1 billion last year to $30 billion in just 15 months; when you stack AWS (AMZN) compute lock-in and the NVDA chip upside, it really is the most attractive card on the AI table. The on-chain market isn’t quiet either: Jupiter’s Anthropic Pre-IPO token pushed the “valuation” to $1.2 trillion on the back of $1.39 million in daily traded volume and only 329 traders—so thin it’s paper-like.

Personally, I lean bearish on a pullback. There are three risks: first, $1.2 trillion is a hybrid illusion of private secondary shares plus on-chain synthetic products, with extremely thin liquidity. Even though related names like AMZN and NVDA are relatively stable, Anthropic’s own equity being “hard to come by” is itself a bubble signal; second, the company submitted listing documents in June, and the IPO anchor from investment banks is around $900 billion. With $1.2 trillion already in the secondary market, you’re essentially front-loading 30%+ of the listing premium—if the IPO is priced below expectations, it’s a valuation killer; third, if the AI monetization ramp slows down (competition in Claude Code intensifies, and compute-related coins like $RNDR react first), whether $30 billion ARR can hold up the trillion-dollar narrative is a big question. You can speculate, but don’t treat secondary-market quotes as your core position. #Anthropic二级市场估值飙升至1.2万亿美元