Anthropic’s price in the secondary market is going berserk again—Caplight’s latest trade-implied valuation is $1.2 trillion, up 24% from the $965 billion in the May H round, and up 550% year-to-date, for the first time putting OpenAI (about $908 billion) behind it. Claude’s ARR has rolled from $1 billion last year to $30 billion in just 15 months. Combined with the compute capacity binding to AWS (AMZN) and the NVDA chip upside, it really is the best-looking chip on the AI poker table. Even on-chain, it won’t stay quiet: Jupiter’s Anthropic pre-IPO token has pushed its “valuation” to $1.2 trillion thanks to $1.39 million in daily traded volume and just 329 traders—thin as paper.

Personally, I’m more bearish on a pullback. There are three risk points: first, $1.2 trillion may be a mixed illusion of private secondary deals plus on-chain synthetic products—liquidity is extremely thin. Even though related names like AMZN and NVDA are fairly steady, Anthropic’s own equity being “hard to get” is itself a bubble signal; second, the company filed for an IPO in June, and the IPO anchor banks have provided is around $900 billion. In that context, a $1.2 trillion valuation in the secondary market effectively means pre-selling 30%+ of the listing premium—if IPO pricing falls short of expectations, it’s a valuation cut; third, if the AI monetization ramp slows down (competition for Claude Code intensifies, and compute-related coins like $RNDR react first), whether $30 billion in ARR can hold up the trillion-dollar narrative is anyone’s guess. Speculation is fine—just don’t treat secondary-market quotes as your core position. #Anthropic二级市场估值飙升至1.2万亿美元