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Sure, storage has fallen again, and it seems the AI bubble debate has found new evidence.
But is there actually a bubble in this AI cycle? A new report from BlackRock uses data to make a comparison.
Putting this AI rally (2019–2026) side by side with the 1990s internet bubble (1993–1999), several key findings are:
First, the upside is about half. During the seven-year internet bubble, tech stocks rose 1,097%; over this seven-and-a-half-year AI cycle, they rose 569%, which is not even half in comparison.
Second, the pace is completely different. In the internet bubble, stocks kept rising for seven years: the lowest each year was 19.9% and the highest was 78.7%, getting stronger year by year with no real brakes. In this AI cycle, there was a bear market in 2022 (-28.2%), and it took about a year before it picked up again.
Third, the broader market moves differently in terms of magnitude. During the internet bubble, the US stock market index rose 292%, while tech stocks rose 1,097%—a difference of more than three times, which looks more like tech stocks going berserk on their own. In this cycle, the broader market rose 237%, and tech stocks rose 569%—the gap is not as extreme.
So BlackRock’s view is that there’s still some distance from the frenzy of 1999. However, asset managers certainly won’t directly sing the bearish case. As retail investors, you should be more cautious in how you view the current divergence in the market.