7.13 Subjective cycle recap post: Qin Qiong sold horses in a bid to save face; Yang Zhi also once sold his treasure sword.

[TaoGuBa]

Qin Qiong sold his horse in disgrace, yet Yang Zhi also once sold his treasure sword.

Cao Cao retreated from Huarong Dao, while Zhongda endured humiliation and even pretended to be a woman to smile.

Every hero has times when they fall on hard days—who hasn’t bowed their head and bent their waist at least once?

No need to be upset. Just pretend to be dead, will you?

Wait until the second half of next week

In one moment after getting ashore, you’ll soar to the sky;
reclaim your sharp edge and charge into the high clouds.

Please like and leave comments a lot.

Don’t need to tip more—100 points is enough. The key is the number of heads.

Come on—if you roll out 7 pages, you can get the highlight.

Thanks everyone! Mua mua~~~

$1
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Main board**

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2.8w hundred million

Shrinking volume by 32.7B (-16.8%), effective shrinking volume.

It even reached 3,800 during the day, you know.

Or should we push it back and redo it?

Spending all day treating quant as a treasure—don’t know what you’re aiming for.

So you’re just trying to eliminate retail traders?

The ChiNext and Shenzhen index both bottom at 9. Tomorrow, after the inertia sell-off and a one-kill, there’s an expectation of a rebound.

Sentiment is profit effect—sentiment is the embodiment of emotion.

Tuesday: 33 limit-ups, 29 limit-downs. Main face: 14 consecutive limit-ups, 5 large-cap boards; above 10% red: 17.

Breaks on limit-up: 23 touched limit-down: 53. Number of stocks that stayed green: 639. Global: 31. Main board volume energy: 25,811. Break rate: 41%.

Top 20 by turnover yesterday: -2.01%, 9 red. Highest turnover: Midea? Xin? Chuang? 2.09%, 36.3B.

Wednesday: 46 limit-ups, 40 limit-downs. Main face: 7 consecutive limit-ups, 8 large-cap boards; above 10% red: 29.

Breaks on limit-up: 14 touched limit-down: 67. Number of stocks that stayed green: 1,531. Global: 44. Main board volume energy: 25,635. Break rate: 23%.

Top 20 by turnover yesterday: -2.2%, 8 red. Highest turnover: Midea? Xin? Chuang? 0.57%, 41.6B.

Thursday: 74 limit-ups, 12 limit-downs. Main face: 3 consecutive limit-ups, 6 large-cap boards; above 10% red: 85.

Breaks on limit-up: 17 touched limit-down: 45. Number of stocks that stayed green: 2,381. Global: 60. Main board volume energy: 29,137. Break rate: 19%.

Top 20 by turnover yesterday: 7.86%, 20 red. Highest turnover: Midea? Xin? Chuang? 5.9%, 59.3B.

Friday: 88 limit-ups, 4 limit-downs. Main face: 68 consecutive limit-ups, 9 large-cap boards; above 10% red: 45.

Breaks on limit-up: 91 touched limit-down: 13. Number of stocks that stayed green: 3,509. Global: 60. Main board volume energy: 33,885. Break rate: 50%.

Top 20 by turnover yesterday: -4.06%, 3 red. Highest turnover: Zhaoyi Innovation -7.76%, 593 billion.

Monday: 27 limit-ups, 172 limit-downs. Main face: 28 consecutive limit-ups, 29 large-cap boards; above 10% red: 12
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Breaks on limit-up: 14, touched limit-down: 214. Number of stocks that stayed green: 777. Global: 29. Main board volume energy: 28,177. Break rate: 32%.**
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Top 20 by turnover yesterday: -3.42%, 3 red. Highest turnover: Midea? Xin? Chuang? 1.28%, 38.3B.**

Monday (single day)

Profit-taking effect: an ice point.

The ice point quality is very high.

The first “black data” of 2026.

There were 172 limit-downs. Weight capacity: big technology—accelerating to bottom.

This is the same as the “climax accelerating to the top” feeling. One is “peak leads to decline,” and the other is “when extreme comes, prosperity turns.”

Tomorrow’s normal expectation still includes inertia and the lingering aftertaste of selling pressure.

Overseas late-night trading and evening news flow will change expectations for the pre-market call auction and the open.

But during the session, expectations shouldn’t be where disagreements are released.

Then here, you can’t keep looking for downside in either the high or the low.

If you’re going to be bearish, it should be bearish on Friday—after the rebound ends.

Friday was disagreement + launching. Monday was disagreement + acceleration, with expectations continuing to exhaustion into decline.

Get your spirit up. After Tuesday reaches exhaustion, if there’s no repair, then Wednesday should also repair.

At the moment, it’s all quant and “expert traders.” On Tuesday, there will be funds taking the lead for Wednesday.

Sentiment cycle

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04.08 ~ today: 65 trading days

This is exactly three cycles. Otherwise the time dimension won’t match.

The problem is that multiple modes and multiple themes running in parallel make the cycle rhythm and the dividing points very blurry.

05.14 ~ today: 42 trading days

18 bearish days, 24 bullish days

Red is fat, green is lean

Look at the line chart.

High-level consolidation structure—this belongs to the sentiment chaos period, which is relatively bearish.

Theme cycle

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Type A theme cycle: one dynasty rules all and dominates the whole arena (25-year end commercial aerospace, across-the-strait, both sides of Taiwan)

For this kind of cycle, you don’t need to analyze other themes. Just trade the leader, do the lagging follow-ups—look only at the main line; it’s a crime to even glance at the other lines.

Type B theme cycle: multiple themes in parallel, wildly disordered, topsy-turvy (26-year first quarter, MY war)

In this kind of cycle, there’s no absolute main line. But each line has its own recognizability, and low-position follow-ups can still form a rhythm and run out of steam.

Logic rundown

We don’t have enough space, and time isn’t enough to plan and stage the筹.

So damn “black”—long-term X is about to be listed. That’s why the STAR Market is warming up. Recently, regardless of what theme is strong intraday, it can get pulled by the STAR Market, causing the STAR Market not to make new lows.

You can’t let the STAR Market go cold, and you also can’t make it too hot.

Judging from last Thursday’s angle, if the hotness in the STAR Market isn’t suppressed a bit, it easily gets overheated.

On the weekend, there was research silicon nonsense regulation.

Exclude big technology optics and semiconductors—everything else is a rotation theme. The difference is whether it rotates for one day or for 3 days.

Commercial aerospace: strength countdown, 5th -35,643

Exclude optics and semiconductors—everything else is rotation lines.

The first one to walk out was innovative drugs.

Medicine strength: 5,976; strength rank #1.

That’s normal. The weekend already said: even if commercial aerospace doesn’t meet expectations today, it doesn’t necessarily mean a big tech reflux.

In big technology, disagreement—so the market chose medicine, which is also normal, because this disagreement started from the very earliest optics split.

Then comes robots: strength countdown #2, -59,281.

Computing power: strength countdown #3, -4,134.

These are all “rotation and positioning” themes caused by big tech disagreement. They can’t become a new cycle new main line.

They’re all accompanying big tech rotations.

Once commercial aerospace truly leaves—every time, the script is different.

All these “external-cut” themes are timing the retreat of big tech. Once big tech’s retreat ends and it starts repair—maybe even starts a new cycle—these things also step back again.

Computing power and robots are different: quant traders like to ride the repair of accompanying big tech for these directions.

The weekend also said: regarding commercial aerospace, if you understand it by rotation themes, the node is “good” because it’s timing the semiconductor’s drop in the phase of second-wave disagreement.

But from the perspective of a new cycle, it’s not good. The best node is where the semiconductor’s drop enters the second-wave repair—so the theme “gets carved out” there.

Chip strength: -15,262

Morning was still positive; in the afternoon, it turned negative along with the sector making new lows.

Relatively “split,” anchored to the semiconductor board index—here it has already begun the second-wave down move.

The weakest sub-sectors are advanced packaging and storage.

But the KC50 semiconductor and semiconductor equipment/materials sector indices didn’t make new lows.

In this kind of environment, just treat semiconductors as “second-wave down.”

If there’s one thing that holds up the indices against the trend, you don’t need to overthink it—tomorrow’s downside follow-through isn’t ruled out.

Here, the rhythm between semiconductors and optics is one body. Semiconductors did a second-wave down today, while optics did a third-wave down.

The future repair rhythm should still be synchronous: semiconductors do second-wave down repair; optics do third-wave down repair.

Optics: strength countdown last, -71,311

Damn—way beyond expectations. After a day and a half of second-wave down repair, it somehow managed to start a third-wave down with such strong force.

Today CPO tried to turn things around, but other directions were too dark—especially optical fibers and PCB.

For the internal structure, optical fibers and PCB need to stop falling so that CPO can lead the charge.

For the external structure, optics needs to stop falling so that semiconductors will lead the repair—after all, repairing semiconductors has less pressure than optics.

At the same time, there’s also political correctness tied to long-term X.

For both optics and semiconductors tomorrow, the expectation should be: lower wicks. One is “second-wave disagreement exhaustion”; the other is “second-wave disagreement exhaustion”—then it starts repairing.

All weekend headlines were: no need to panic; next week’s second half will repair.

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Node

You need to wait for the new node. There isn’t a node aligned with the general index yet.

For the coming down-and-up move, check whether it resonates with the broader market.

If it resonates with the broader market, then see what themes this “down repair” resonates with—can it rebound into a real reversal?

06.30 The node of this batch of sentiment stocks

Hengshang Energy Conservation is still there—meaning there’s still money doing “through-bids” and holding the group together.

The fourth-stage follow-up rally hasn’t died completely.

Quant era
Trying to be objective can’t beat quant; the only thing that can beat quant is human subjectivity.
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My subjectivity is:**

Monday’s prediction

At the open, big technology disagreement continued. By close, I couldn’t predict that.

Commercial aerospace direction was consistent. By close, I couldn’t predict that either.

In the whole week’s sentiment, Friday was a weak start. Monday could take disagreement and repair—both are okay.

Friday is basically no prediction. No evaluation. Really—I couldn’t predict today would be this dark.

When the sell-off had enough killing momentum that “third-wave down” could explode, it was still beyond expectations.

Tuesday’s expectation

No matter how US stocks churn, just watch that intraday disagreement continues tomorrow.

If there’s a repair intraday, then either a weak start at close or a strong repair at close can both work.

The key is that quant is now too hard to predict.

Rally for a day and then smoke-like euphoria; sell-off for a day and become an ice point.

Big rhythm

I said: even if big technology has a repair today, optics can still do S then B, because this direction is retreating.

Semiconductors are a game for “survival through the squeeze.”

Didn’t expect that today’s funds only did small-caps led by “youzi”—sentiment microcaps.

The big weights were cashed out by quant too aggressively because the overall market was too dark.

Tomorrow should be: optics—focus on the low position exhaustion on the left side; rhythm.

Semiconductors—focus on the right-side exhaustion leading the trend.

Because as long as Tuesday’s disagreement exhausts—no matter whether it comes with repair—Wednesday will still be expected to repair.

Key stock reviews

Dongshan Precision

In the morning there was a wave stronger than the sector; after that, the rest of the time was included inside the structure of Jizhong Jixu Chuang.

Latest by 7.15, it should also issue a pre-announcement. If it doesn’t, it means below expectations.

Good things are coming.

Dongshan Precision’s performance doesn’t need to be beyond expectations—meeting expectations is enough.

The key is to best place it right at the second-wave down repair node, and give optics a reason to rebound.

Whether it’s beyond expectations or not is just a matter of what institutions say with one mouth.

Here, storage performance doing well but falling is one thing; that’s different from optics performance.

Because storage looks to Korea; their wind is gone, and it’s getting weaker.

When stocks rise too high, that becomes a “sin.”

And optics modules: over three cycles, they didn’t really run up, and the adjustment was deep enough.

So the so-called “wait for earnings—midyear report” here is actually just waiting for a rebound node’s winds to blow.

Second-priority stock reviews

Xin Yi Sheng

Didn’t move

Huatian Technology

Only the first hour was resistant;

After that, it was dragged down.

If it can’t quickly and actively repair tomorrow, then unfollow.

Better to wait until tomorrow. Still, I wasn’t expecting today’s darkness to be at this level.

Not key stock reviews

If you want to learn deeply, you can go to the blog owner’s homepage to view it.

Below are many publicly available learning/education articles with solid takeaways.

Collection of takeaways (a lot of solid-knowledge articles) directory

Historical review of sentiment cycle—learn from history to know rise and decline. Directory

Sentiment cycle video explanation—everyone says it’s great. Why not watch it too?

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(Investing involves risk; trading is cautious. Plans never keep up with changes—everything follows the market. The content is a record of everyone’s thoughts and notes; I’m only sharing my understanding of the market for personal reference, not constituting any investment advice. All trading decisions are for your own responsibility. Profit/loss is your own!)