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[Red Envelope] 2026.7.13 Recap: The index broke down and fell—where exactly is the bottom?
1. Pre-market Analysis
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A day in the stock market starts with the opening auction. The market’s auction performance can help judge the day’s momentum environment for continuation trading. First, look at the auction guide. Today’s largest order is @九丰能源@, and the 2 billion order size has guiding significance. The guiding direction is commercial aerospace and natural gas. Second in the auction is @贵绳股份@, which also has guiding significance, with the concept being commercial aerospace. Third is @水发燃气@, with the concept of electronic gases and natural gas. From the auction guide, the strength is still fairly okay; the guiding directions are commercial aerospace and electronic gases or natural gas.
Next, look at the performance of the high-recognition stocks. First is @恒尚节能@, which is breaking-down a board. It opened low by more than 4%, which counts as an upside surprise. Normally, it should be a one-word limit-down. Then look at @浪潮信息@ and @华天科技@—one opened slightly higher, the other opened slightly lower, and both opened in a relatively good way. In terms of the performance of high-recognition names, the openings were also decent. The problem is in the indices and the external environment. Today the index opened down directly by 0.75 percentage points. In addition, overseas markets saw broad declines, including South Korea, which again looks like it’s about to trigger a trading halt. In this kind of situation, it’s impossible to bet that A-shares will pull up at the open—after all, the auction itself is panic, and later it’s hard to count on improvement. So the environment judgment given today is problematic, and I won’t open any positions.
2. Consecutive-Day Board Stages
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The current consecutive-day height is up to three boards. But looking at these three-board stocks, they’re all charts of oversold rebound, so it’s hard to say there are any expectations. The ones on the two boards below are also oversold rebound patterns. They don’t look like they’re able to run into a main upswing. In this situation, the suggestion is to wait until the market shakes out.
3. Best Opening Auction Solution
The environment judgment given today is not good—so don’t open positions. If you don’t open positions, there is no “best opening auction solution.”
4. Market Recap
Today’s index was affected by overseas markets. There was panic at the auction, resulting in a low open. After the open, it pulled up for a short time, then followed South Korea all the way down. By the close, it was down about 2%. Based on the current situation, the index is breaking down, and it has filled the gaps below. Today held at the 3,900 support level; in the short term, this level will be used as the anchor. If it breaks, the next strong support is at 3,794. That support is a bit far. The earlier big positive (bullish) node has been completely invalidated now; we need to wait for a new node.
There wasn’t any topic that really fermented today. Whether it was following the index or running against the index, no theme managed to stand up. Commercial aerospace, which exploded in the previous trading day, is basically a complete failure today—another time of tricking people. And this time it’s even more excessive: batch limit-downs. The stock behavior in this sector is really poor, even worse than robots. For individual stocks, right now it’s mainly looking at @恒尚节能@: an upside-surprise reversal with a back-to-back rebound. In a weak market, this kind of high-recognition stock gets group attention. When the index was rising today, it blew up and cut out—so it took the path of going against the index. If the index warms up later, there is a risk that the group mentality will dissolve.
The blogger shares opportunities every day during the early-market musings and throughout the session. I believe this can bring everyone a lot of help. If you’re interested, you can click follow to track my updates.
5. Thanks List
Thanks to the following friends for your encouragement—thank you so much for your support.
@hnlhyhx @阳春三月6789 @古隐远听神
Thanks to the following friends for your tips and pushing the playback—thank you very much for your support.
@余牧尘 @六合老杆子 @老沈牛牛 @谢简舟
Gold dust records the moment—thank you for your strong support! @初学者渡劫@我1獭兔@阿凡达与哪吒@谷海小白@余牧尘@hnlhyhx@Cheertt@时光之笔
If you’ve gained something by getting to this point, please give the post a like and encouragement. Your support is the biggest motivation for me to keep updating. Wishing you all a smooth journey with soaring returns!