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Nanhua Futures: With geopolitical situations fluctuating, risk premium on fuel oil may rise somewhat in the short term

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The inventory replenishment triggered by physical cargo arrivals during the opening of the strait is already being delivered, but the sporadic skirmishes that broke out in the Persian Gulf last week again led crude oil and heavy oil futures to see a round of intense swings and repricing in the second half of the week. The latest weekly data released on July 9 showed that Singapore’s onshore residual fuel oil inventories rose sharply this month from June, up an average of 10%. Total physical volumes also steadily recovered to 19.18 million barrels. In early July, Singapore’s net fuel oil import volume jumped significantly; meanwhile, after the Atlantic basin and the Middle East reopened, arbitrage cargoes had entered a concentrated unloading period. In the second half of the week, the market worried that the fragile Iran-Iraq ceasefire agreement could be broken; international oil prices rebounded aggressively from their lows, which in turn passively pushed up the absolute prices in the fuel oil futures market, and long positions in far-dated months injected a geopolitical risk premium again. Given the repeated fluctuations in the geopolitical situation, the short-term fuel oil risk premium may rise somewhat. (Nanhua Futures)
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