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Morgan Stanley: AI Capex will reach $1.4 trillion by 2028

2026-07-13 09:37:43

Deep Tide TechFlow message: According to Chaoxiang Research, a Morgan Stanley report dated July 10 projects that in 2028, the combined capital expenditures of the five mega-scale enterprises—Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and SpaceX—will reach $1.4 trillion, up by more than 3x from 2025; available computing capacity will expand from 30GW to 120GW. Meta is listed as the preferred one, with Capex for 2027/2028 raised to $225 billion/$250 billion. Morgan Stanley particularly emphasized the opportunities in Meta’s API business: Muse Spark 1.1 is priced 30%-86% lower than its peers, and with every 100MW of computing power, it can generate about $8 billion in revenue and an EPS increment of about $1.9 per share. The deciding factor in the compute race is shifting from “how much to build” to “how much to sell,” and Meta simultaneously has five monetization pathways. Morgan Stanley maintains an overweight rating for Meta, Amazon, and Google.

MSFT0.19%

AMZN-0.68%

META6.01%

SPCX-4.41%

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