First Futures: U.S. military airstrikes on Iran pushed oil prices sharply higher, raising supply concerns again

The core factors behind the sharp rebound in oil prices are the U.S. military’s strikes against Iran and the revocation of Iran’s oil export licenses. On Tuesday (July 7), the U.S. military launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran in response to Iran’s attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and revoked Iran’s oil export license. This means that Iran’s process for bringing its oil back to the market may be hindered, and the global supply side faces fresh uncertainty. The Strait of Hormuz’s critical role in global oil transportation means that any escalation would directly impact supply expectations. Shipping companies and local producers have turned to detours around this strategic waterway, further intensifying concerns about supply disruptions. This geopolitical escalation occurs at a key stage in U.S.-Iran negotiations. Reports say that talks between the two sides on a permanent ceasefire are expected to resume in Pakistan on July 11, with the agenda set to include difficult issues such as the nuclear program, economic sanctions on Iran, and the freezing of assets by the Revolutionary Guard. The U.S. Treasury’s enforcement actions further complicate the outlook for negotiations. For now, the current recommendation is to mainly stay on the sidelines. (Original Futures)
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