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First Futures: As pushback toward high-priced pork begins to rise among downstream buyers, pork prices stop rising and fall back

K-LinePoet
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Abstract generation in progress
Today’s hog 2609 futures contract opened lower and then drifted down before bottoming out at 12,020 yuan/ton, with losses exceeding 3%. Driven by the recent rapid widening of the fat–lean spread, the breeding side has increased “hold-back” weight gains, and additional entries for second-phase fattening have also led to increased stocking. This supply contraction supported a short-term surge in hog prices. However, as downstream buyers’ reluctance toward high-priced hogs gradually builds, hog prices have stopped rising and have pulled back. Meanwhile, we are currently in the summer consumption off-season: hot weather suppresses pork demand. Slaughterhouse operating rates have declined, while frozen-provision inventories remain at historically high levels, leaving the demand side without support. Judging from capacity data, supply should fall at the margin in the second half of the year, but the supply base is still relatively high, so supply pressure is unlikely to ease quickly. In the short term, the market is mainly about digesting the high basis/premium. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. Going forward, the key focus should be on tracking the group’s shipment schedule, frozen-provision warehouse-out movements, and the sell-through of fresh pork at the terminal end. (Chuangchuang Futures)
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