Now Bitcoin price action is completely following the Fed rate-cut expectations. Once the CPI inflation data comes out, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields will immediately reverse course. For a coin like Bitcoin that pays no interest, its price will swing sharply along with market expectations for capital flows.

At present, BTC has tried several times to break up to 64,700 but hasn’t been able to. There’s heavy resistance overhead. Below, 61,200 is the key medium-term support determining strength or weakness. Tomorrow’s CPI data will very likely directly break the large consolidation range of 61,200–64,700 and trigger a one-way up or down move.

The market currently broadly expects total inflation year-over-year at 3.9%, and core inflation at 2.9% after excluding energy and food.

If the inflation data comes in higher than expected, the market will drop sharply. It will first test the 61,200 support; if it can’t hold, it will fall toward 60,000. Any rebound afterward is only suitable for shorting.

If the inflation data is about in line with expectations, the market won’t produce a one-way trend; it will continue to range between 61,200 and 64,700. When it rises close to 64,700, short it; when it drops close to 61,200, buy the dip to go long.

If the inflation data shows a clear cooldown, the market will judge that the Fed will cut rates soon. BTC will surge with volume and break through the 64,700 resistance level. After the breakout, traders should chase longs in the same direction, with upside targets at 67,000. $BTC ‌