July 13, 2026 (Monday) ETH/USDT Perpetual Futures Full Hands-on Trading Strategy

Current price around 1,777. Overall, it follows BTC’s weak range-bound consolidation; the daily chart is capped by moving averages. Intraday main plan: buy-the-dip and sell high with rebound, keep a light position for short-term long-only bets. Tighten position control before tomorrow’s CPI data and avoid overnight gap risk.

I. Core Key Price Levels for the Entire Cycle

Supports (from near to far)

1. Intraday short-term lifeline: 1,768-1,772 (4-hour 200 MA; short-term watershed between bulls and bears)

2. Medium-term strong demand zone: 1,720-1,730 (prior dense traded range; core defense for longs)

3. Swing-trend floor: 1,680 (if broken, opens up room for medium-term correction)

Resistances (from near to far)

1. First intraday supply area: 1,790-1,800 (MA20/MA50 confluence resistance)

2. Swing double-top pressure: 1,810-1,833

3. Strong reversal pressure for bulls: 1,850

II. Three Standardized Practical Opening Plans

Plan 1: Sell high on the rebound (today’s preferred trend-following idea; highest priority)

Applicable condition: Price rebounds into the resistance band with a long upper wick, 15-minute MACD shows top-bearish divergence, and volume shrinks while pushing higher before rolling over.

1. Entry zone: 1,790-1,798

2. Unified stop loss: 1,808 (if 1,800 holds with volume, the short logic fails—exit unconditionally)

3. Tiered take profit:
First tier: 1,772 (reduce position by 50%; move stop loss up to entry price to break even)
Second tier: 1,730 (close all remaining)

4. Position leverage: 5%-7% of total capital; intraday leverage 5-8x; do not heavy overnights

Plan 2: Buy the pullback low (countertrend short-term; only light-position tactical repair)

Applicable condition: Pullback to support forms a hammer candle, 15-minute bottom-bullish divergence, and the market shows volume-backed acceptance.

1. Entry zone: 1,720-1,730

2. Unified stop loss: 1,675 (a valid break below support means abandoning the long idea)

3. Tiered take profit:
First tier: 1,772 (reduce position)
Second tier: 1,795 (exit everything)

4. Position leverage: 2%-4% of total capital; leverage 3-5x; close all positions before CPI data is released

Plan 3: Breakout trend-chasing (trade only after confirmation)

1. Short on downside break
Confirmation signal: 4-hour close breaks below 1,768 support
Entry: chase short around 1,760; stop loss 1,790; targets 1,730 and 1,680

2. Long on upside breakout
Confirmation signal: volume-backed hold above 1,800
Entry: chase long around 1,805; stop loss 1,770; targets 1,833 and 1,850

III. No-trade Observation Range

1,772-1,790 is a narrow range consolidation zone. Price swings are small, stop-hunt sweeps back and forth are likely, and fee losses are large. Do not open new positions the whole time—wait until price touches the box’s upper or lower boundary before laying out trades.

IV. Hard Unified Risk Control Rules

1. Leverage control: intraday short-term max 8x; swing positions not exceeding 3x; when CPI is near, reduce to within 3x

2. Capital risk control: maximum loss per trade capped at within 1% of total account capital; after two consecutive losing trades, stop trading for the day

3. Reward-to-risk requirement: all open orders must have a profit/loss ratio ≥ 2:1; if not met, skip the entry immediately

4. Position management: fully close all positions before the evening US CPI data; prohibit heavy positions carrying across the data to avoid gap risk

V. Complete Contingency Plans for Three Market Types

1. Range-bound market (most likely today): 1,720-1,800 box range back and forth. Strictly trade extremes (high/low points). Don’t frequently trade the middle area—reduce invalid losses.

2. Slightly weak downward market: if BTC breaks below the 62,600 lifeline, it will drag the board; ETH breaks below 1,768 in sync. Add to shorts following the trend. First target 1,730; if it fails, look at 1,680.

3. Recovery rebound market: BTC holds 62,670 support and stabilizes; ETH stands above 1,772 and repairs upward. Rebound meets pressure at 1,800—continue selling high. If it breaks above 1,800, switch to the short-term long bias.

VI. Key Variables That Influence the Screen

1. Joint-direction indicator: whether BTC’s 62,670 long/short lifeline holds or fails directly determines ETH’s overall intraday up/down rhythm.

2. Short-term bearish factor: continued geopolitical risk-aversion sentiment in the Middle East suppresses risk assets; longs’ rebound strength is limited.

3. Medium-term core catalyst: tomorrow’s U.S. CPI inflation data. Any data volatility can trigger large one-way moves in crypto markets. Today is not suitable for long-term heavy holding #世界杯冠军预测 $ETH ‌