July 13, 2026 (Monday) BTC/USDT Perpetual Futures — Full Execution Trading Plan

Current price: 62,750. The daily price is tightly riding the 30-day moving average around 62,670. Intraday trading is weak and choppy. The key pivot level is 62,670. Tomorrow’s CPI data will determine the medium-term direction. Today mainly use range-based “sell the highs and buy the lows.”

I. Key Core Price Levels

Support (from near to far)

1. Intraday “life line”: 62,600–62,700 (long/short dividing line)

2. Medium-term strong support: 61,300–61,500 (high-density position area)

3. Bottom defense zone: 60,800–60,000

Resistance (from near to far)

1. Intraday first pressure: 63,200

2. Swing selling pressure zone: 64,300

3. Medium-term strong resistance: 65,000–65,070 (50-day moving average)

II. Three Standardized Trading Setups

Setup 1: Sell the Rebound at High (main idea today, highest priority)

Applicable scenario: price rebounds and gets capped, RSI is overbought, and long upper-wick candles appear.

1. Entry zone: 63,100–63,300

2. Stop-loss: 63,800 (if price holds above 63,800, the short thesis fails)

3. Take-profit in stages
First take-profit: 62,650 (reduce position by half; move stop up to break-even)
Second take-profit: 61,500 (exit remaining position)

4. Position sizing: total capital 5%–8%, leverage 5–10x

Setup 2: Buy the Pullback at Low (counter-trend scalp, light position to bet on a rebound)

Applicable scenario: pullback support “pins” with a hammer-like candle, RSI falls into the oversold range.

1. Entry zone: 61,300–61,500

2. Stop-loss: 60,700 (if it breaks down effectively, abandon the long)

3. Take-profit in stages
First take-profit: 62,650 (reduce position)
Second take-profit: 63,200 (close all)

4. Position sizing: total capital 3%–5%, leverage 3–5x, no holding overnight

Setup 3: Breakout Trend Following (chase after a breakdown/breakout)

1. Short on downside break
Confirmation condition: 4-hour close breaks below 62,600
Entry: chase short around 62,500, stop-loss 63,000, targets 61,500 and 60,800

2. Long on upside breakout
Confirmation condition: strong-volume breakout and stabilization above 63,300
Entry: chase long around 63,350, stop-loss 62,900, target 64,300

III. Invalid “Wait-and-See” Range

62,700–63,100 is a narrow consolidation band. Price volatility is low and fees are high, so do not open any positions. Wait for price to touch the upper or lower band before planning entries.

IV. Hard Risk-Control Standards

1. Leverage limits: intraday scalps max 10x; swing positions must not exceed 5x

2. Capital risk control: maximum loss per trade when opening must be within 1% of total account capital

3. Risk/reward: for all opened trades, risk/reward must be ≥ 2:1; if it doesn’t meet this, skip the trade

4. Holding rules: low-level longs cannot be held overnight; before CPI data, close all shorts to avoid gap risk

V. Market Response Contingency Plan

1. Choppy range market (high probability): oscillate within the box 60,800–64,300; strictly execute trades at the high/low points and avoid frequent mid-range operations

2. Weak grind lower: after breaking below 62,600, add shorts following the trend. Target 61,500; if 61,500 fails, then look to 60,800

3. Rebound repair: hold 62,670 support, rebound to test 63,200; if it stabilizes, then watch the 64,300 resistance

VI. Core Factors Influencing the Order Book

1. Near-term suppression: Middle East geopolitical “safe-haven” sentiment suppresses the rebound height of risk assets

2. Intraday directional indicator: whether the 62,670 life line holds or breaks determines the whole-day long/short rhythm

3. Tomorrow’s key catalyst: US CPI inflation data will directly trigger a sharp one-way move. Reduce heavy-position exposure in the evening #伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡 $BTC