Galaxy Research Director: Long-term Bitcoin holders have hit fresh all-time highs across four key metrics

Galaxy Digital research director Alex Thorn said on July 13 that four on-chain metrics tied to Bitcoin long-term holders hit historical highs on the same day, as old-coin holders are accumulating Bitcoin on an unprecedented scale.
(Background: Is this Bitcoin cycle bottom far above prior bear markets? Galaxy’s throwback take on a “quiet top”)
(Background note: Galaxy Digital—after subtracting inflation, Bitcoin has actually never broken $100k)

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• Four metrics set new highs in sync
• What is realized price?
• The reverse signals on the same day
• Interpretation

Galaxy Digital research director Alex Thorn said on July 13 that four on-chain metrics tied to Bitcoin long-term holders refreshed historical highs on the same day. The original source is Thorn’s own X post. The data shows that old-coin holders are accumulating Bitcoin on an unprecedented scale, and a tranche of Bitcoin that has not yet been used has already been held for more than 10 years.

Four metrics set new highs in sync

The specific figures are as follows:

• Bitcoin held for more than 10 years as a share of total supply 17.7%
• Long-term holders (holding for more than 155 days) have accumulated 16.75 million BTC
• The realized market cap of long-term holders is $836.4 billion
• The realized price of long-term holders has climbed above $50,000

With all four metrics setting new highs at the same time, it suggests Bitcoin’s supply structure is shifting toward “long-term holding and reduced selling.”

What is realized price?

Realized Price (Realized Price) is calculated by re-weighting each Bitcoin by the market price at the time of its last movement. In simple terms, it reflects the overall “average cost basis” of Bitcoin holders. When the realized price of long-term holders reaches $50,000, it means the average entry cost of long-term holders has already moved up to this level.

Thorn also noted that in the past, these four metrics generally did not set new highs simultaneously—typically, supply rises first, followed by realized price. With all four refreshing records on the same day, it indicates that long-term holders are not only accumulating, but entering in a new round of capital at relatively higher price levels.

The reverse signals on the same day

On the very same day the metrics set new highs, the Coinbase Premium Index has been in a negative premium range for 55 consecutive days, setting the longest “consecutive negative” streak since the index was launched. In addition, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler warned in a weekly report of cooling short-term buying pressure, and the ETF market has seen net outflows for 8 straight weeks, so overall market capital momentum remains weak.

Also, a long-idle Bitcoin OG transferred 2,931 BTC (about $188 million) to a new wallet today, suggesting that early holders may be adjusting their positions.

Interpretation

When the four long-term-holder metrics all set new highs at the same time, it means Bitcoin’s “supply side” is contracting, with more BTC moving into cold wallets or long-term holding status. But signals from the demand side (ETF flows, the premium index) have not yet shifted in sync. If there is a lack of new capital injection in the short term, the supply contraction effect may be absorbed through sideways price consolidation. In other words, it’s a good thing that old holders are willing to keep holding, but the market still needs demand-side follow-through to drive the next leg higher.