July 13, 2026 (Monday) BTC/USDT Perpetual Futures Technical Analysis

I. Market Overview (Live intraday)

Current BTC futures price is around $62,750, down about 2% intraday. Driven by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, global risk assets have collectively weakened. Over the past 24 hours, the total crypto liquidation amount reached $236 million. Short-term short pressure has eased, but the daily key moving-average support has not yet been broken effectively.

Overall broad range: 60,800-64,500. The Bollinger Bands continue to tighten. On the daily chart, MACD is flat and RSI is neutral at 52. Both long and short momentum are balanced. Today is mainly characterized by weak range-bound trading, while the breakout in the bigger direction awaits a catalyst from the US CPI data.

II. Multi-timeframe Technical Breakdown

1. Daily timeframe

• Dynamic support: 30-day moving average at 62,670 (the current lifeline, with price tightly tracking it). If the close holds above 62,670, the long structure remains intact; an effective breakdown would weaken the trend, with downside targeting the 61,500-area support.

• Dynamic resistance: 50-day moving average at 65,070. Major mid-term pressure is 64,300-65,000. Until it is reclaimed, rebounds are mainly viewed as repairs.

• Pattern: Weekly chart shows a cross (doji) star oscillation. The prior low at 58,100 forms a stage bottom. The medium-to-long-term downside room is limited, and in the short term there is no one-sided trend.

2. 4-hour short-term timeframe

• Short-term supports: 62,600, 61,500, 60,800

• Short-term resistances: 63,200, 64,300

• Indicators: 4-hour RSI has pulled back to 43, slightly approaching oversold, suggesting a technical rebound need in the short term. Moving averages are tangled, with no clear one-way signal.

III. Layered Key Price Levels

Supports (from near to far)

1. Short-term lifeline: 62,600-62,700 (30-day moving average)

2. Mid-level strong support: 61,300-61,500 (prior dense trading zone)

3. Bottom defensive support: 60,800-60,000 integer level

Resistances (from near to far)

1. Intraday short-term pressure: 63,200

2. Intraday high resistance: 64,300

3. Mid-term trend suppression: 65,000-66,000 (50-day moving average)

IV. Core Market Logic

1. Bearish pressure: The Middle East geopolitical conflict suppresses market risk appetite. US stock index futures decline in sync. Short-term funds retreat to safety, capping the rebound height of crypto.

2. Long-side support: Spot ETFs are still seeing small net inflows. Large whales continue to accumulate coins. The 58,000 stage bottom has sufficient support, limiting room for deep selloffs.

3. Trading rhythm: Today is mainly range-bound but weak. Don’t chase shorts; prioritize selling into rebounds. If supports stabilize, lightly position to gamble on a short-term rebound. All actions must strictly use stop-losses.

V. Scenario Forecast

1. Bullish-leaning scenario: Price holds the 62,670 daily moving-average line. Rebound pushes up toward 63,200; after breaking through, it aims at 64,300 resistance. Only after holding above 64,300 is there a chance to test the 65,000 mid-term pressure.

2. Bearish-leaning scenario: A valid breakdown of 62,600 support. The first downside target is 61,500. After 61,500 is lost, further tests shift to the key bottom range at 60,800.

3. Extreme bearish outlook: A breakdown of the 60,000 integer level opens further downside room, with a drop toward the prior low at 58,000.

VI. Short-term Trading Approach for Futures

1. Rebound and sell the high as the priority: Set short orders in the 63,100-63,300 range. Stop loss at 63,800. Take profit at 62,600 / 61,500.

2. Buy-the-dip on stabilization as an alternative: If price revisits and stabilizes at 61,300-61,500 support, go long. Stop loss at 60,700. Take profit at 62,600 / 63,200.

3. Stand by within the range: In the middle narrow band of 62,700-63,100 there is little trading value. Wait until price touches the high/low extremes before positioning.

VII. Core Influencing Variables

1. Geopolitical news: Whether the Middle East conflict continues to escalate directly affects global risk sentiment.

2. US CPI data: Tomorrow’s inflation data will determine expectations for Fed policy, serving as the core catalyst for the subsequent one-way move.

3. Futures funding: After the liquidation clustered release is fully completed, observe the switch in long/short positioning structure #伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡 $BTC ‌