July 13 BTC/ETH Market Analysis: Macroeconomic negatives are still brewing, and rebounds should be treated with a “short from higher levels” mindset

“Jiang Feng Trading Diary” Episode 1: From today onward, all market analysis viewpoints will be published in advance consecutively to record, review, and replay!

Today there’s only one core viewpoint: the macro environment has not improved yet. As long as there hasn’t been a new positive catalyst in fundamentals, we’ll continue to maintain the trading idea of shorting on rebounds, but it’s not recommended to chase shorts from low levels.

Public viewpoint—analysis in advance; stick to reviewing and replaying—never delete posts, and don’t do Monday-morning quarterbacking.

1. Yesterday’s market review

In yesterday’s article, for ETH we focused on the $1,850～$1,880 resistance zone and clearly stated to continue maintaining the short-from-higher-levels mindset.

Then ETH rallied as high as around $1,848. After touching it, it quickly dropped. As of now, the low is again around $1,772, once more validating the logic from earlier analysis.

Once again, emphasis:

Only viewpoints published in advance are valuable. A post-event review is just to validate the logic, not to show off results.

2. Today’s fundamental analysis

Recently, the situation in Iran heated up again, driving international oil prices higher. The market has started to worry that higher energy prices may push U.S. inflation back up. Against this backdrop, U.S. Treasury yields have kept rising, especially the 2-year Treasury yield, which has moved to a stage high, reflecting that the market is re-pricing the future rate path.

Also, based on the latest CME data, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September has risen to 51.6%, while the probability of a 50-basis-point hike is about 19.9%. This shows that expectations for further monetary tightening have clearly increased.

In addition, inflows into spot BTC ETFs have also started to cool down. Data shows that on July 10, net inflow was about $90.4 million—significantly smaller than the earlier inflow of several hundred million dollars—indicating that the momentum from incremental institutional capital has declined.



Overall, the market is currently facing three bearish factors:

Geopolitical risk boosting inflation expectations; rate-hike expectations continuing to heat up; ETF inflows clearly slowing down.

Therefore, Jiang Feng believes the current macro environment is still bearish. In the short term, it’s more about waiting for rebounds to look for short opportunities rather than blindly chasing or selling based on emotions.

3. BTC market analysis

From the order book/price action, after BTC dipped in the short term, market sentiment has cooled somewhat.

Although the price has already adjusted to some extent, before macro expectations improve, the sustainability of the rebound is still worth observing.

Right now, the key is to watch whether the resistance area around 64,600 can break through effectively. On the daily timeframe, EMA55 around 65,600 is pressing down. In the short term, there is also resistance around 63,600. Additionally, near the prior high around 64,600 and the extended line around 65300 at 261.8 are also resistance zones. If rebounds fail to clear these levels, you can stage entries for short positions!

My view hasn’t changed: bearish bias—treat rebounds as opportunities to short from higher levels!

ETH is basically synchronized; no detailed analysis will be written—see the specific strategy later

Today’s trading strategy

BTC:

Aggressive: enter shorts around 63,666～64,600, stop loss: 65,700, first target around 62,600, second target 61,800, third target around 60,400～59,600!

Conservative: enter shorts around 65,300～65,800, stop loss: 67,600, first target: 63,600, second target: 62,600～61,800, third target around 60,400～59,600! If you’re afraid of missing the move, consider entering a small position first as a starter position.

ETH:

Enter shorts on the rebound around 1,810～1,830～1,850～1,880, stop loss: 1,920, first target: 1,750～1,680, second target: 1,640, third target: 1,530

Key observation: how the overhead resistance levels perform. Don’t chase shorts at the current price. Also, make sure you can’t accept a wide stop loss—reduce position size and participate with light exposure.

If later inflation data cools down, ETF capital inflow resumes with higher volume, or the geopolitical situation eases, then market expectations may shift quickly. Coupled with tomorrow’s CPI release affecting sentiment, you need to strictly control position size and be prepared with stop losses.

The above is only a sharing of personal market analysis and trading ideas and does not constitute any investment advice.

The market trades expectations, not results. Fundamentals determine direction, while technicals help with entry points. Each time we trade, we’re only looking for key levels and using controlled protection to take a shot at the market. If we’re right, we work with trailing stop-losses to hold longer. If we’re wrong, we recognize it promptly and exit decisively.

“Jiang Feng Trading Diary” Episode 1—see you tomorrow!
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