Shut it down, open it up! Oil prices surged 4%—how are your holdings?

Brothers, the Strait of Hormuz is playing out a surreal drama—
Iran says: “Close it—shut it completely, indefinitely.”
The United States says: “It’s not closed—it's open and flowing freely. Anyone can pass.”
Same strait, two different stories. Who do you believe?
The market chose to believe Iran.
When trading opened on July 13, WTI crude jumped more than 4% to $74.27 per barrel; Brent crude rose 4% to above $79.
With a single word—“shut”—comes a 4% gain. One-fifth of the world’s oil passes through here—20 million barrels a day. The throat of the supply chain has been grabbed, so the market can only rise first in deference.
Over the past week, the U.S. military has launched four strikes against Iran. In the latest round, the U.S. struck about 140 Iranian military targets. Iran isn’t sitting idle either—missiles have been fired at U.S. military bases in Qatar, Kuwait, and Jordan.
Even Trump accidentally let it slip: “They just agreed on an agreement yesterday... and within less than an hour after they walked out of the room, they launched an attack.”
Negotiations? Doesn’t exist. Ceasefire? Only in dreams.
So the question is—where will oil prices go in the medium term?
I’ll be direct with three judgments:
First, short-term volatility will be extremely violent.
If a single word—“shut”—sends it up 4%, what if tomorrow the U.S. military drops another bomb? What if the day after tomorrow Iran strikes another ship? Right now, the market is completely held hostage by the news cycle; any ripple in the air could trigger a massive shock.
Second, the risk of a supply disruption is real.
On July 9, the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz fell from 30 the day before to 22. This isn’t a drill—real traffic is shrinking. If the standoff drags on for a week or two, there will be a substantial gap in the global oil supply chain.
Third—and most importantly—this time is different from before.
In past U.S.-Iran conflicts, both sides had an exit. But this time? Iran has announced an “indefinite closure.” The U.S. military hits four times in a week. Even the speaker of Iran’s parliament said directly: the era of unilateral agreements is over.
Both sides have pushed themselves into a corner. Whoever backs down first loses.
That means the oil price’s center-of-gravity will shift upward systematically.
Previously, people thought $70 was the ceiling; now you may need to get used to $75–80 as the new normal. If the situation worsens further, surging to $85 or even $90 would be far from surprising.
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