Things to know before next week opens

First, look at the biggest variable: Iran announces the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz

Everyone is already used to this—it’s been de-sensitized. Likely, “Chuan Zi” will taco-pump it again. Iran hit a commercial vessel sailing in the southern part of the Strait of Hormuz, then announced the indefinite closure of the strait. The U.S. military has already carried out airstrikes against Iran for the third time in the past week, striking roughly 140 military targets. Trump issued a statement saying the strait is still open and the U.S. military will do everything possible to ensure freedom of navigation. But Iran immediately launched missiles and drones at five Middle Eastern countries, setting the largest-scale attack in months. Iranian officials also said that, except for the northern Iran route, the strait is completely closed to all traffic. This geopolitical line is unlikely to cool off in the near term, so you need to closely watch how oil prices and safe-haven assets react together.

Next week’s macro calendar is packed, with CPI as the top priority

The newly appointed Fed Chair Waller will testify before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, 30 minutes after the market closes. The wording in this hearing will directly influence market expectations for the future path of monetary policy. On Tuesday, CPI will be released one hour before the market opens—this data basically determines whether the Fed next is more hawkish or more dovish. On Wednesday there’s also PPI. Thursday is retail sales, and Friday is industrial production and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. There’s a lot of information all week—so it’s recommended to get your timing plan set in advance and don’t go heavy on one direction before the data hits.

Market technicals: the rising wedge has broken out; next week’s OPEX options expiry week looks at 7600-7700

S&P 500 rose 0.42% last Friday, closing at 7575.26. It officially broke out of the triangular convergence wedge consolidation pattern that had been forming for several weeks since the big rally in April and May. Next week also happens to be the July OPEX options expiry week, and the biggest gamma exposure is concentrated around the 7600 level (near the all-time high). On Friday intraday, capital flows strongly concentrated at the 7550 strike price—most of it is net call buying—providing funding support for the index to continue pushing toward 7600 and even 7700.

SPY is currently only 0.73% away from its all-time high. Last Friday it broke through the key resistance zone of 752 to 752.50, then surged all the way to 755.50. On the upside, you should watch the 756 to 756.50 area, where the June 15 interim peak is located. If it stalls there, the market in the short term may enter a period of sharp turbulence. On the downside, support is 752 to 752.50 first, then 749 to 750. Once it breaks below 749, the short-term tape will turn more bearish.

As for VIX, the fear index fell 5% last Friday, closing at 15.01. The options cumulative net fund flow indicates that once VIX rises to the 20 level, a large number of call sell orders will flood in to strongly suppress volatility. Meanwhile, there is a strongly negative gamma exposure at the 15 and 16 strike prices—this is also the technical reason VIX continues to be pressured lower and keeps trending down.

Options-chain signals for several key AI concept stocks

AMD has been consolidating at high levels above the 500 mark since late May. The 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages are all dispersing upward, and the trend is extremely strong. It has never managed an effective breakdown below the 20-day moving average. Across the full chain, accumulated net fund flow shows very strong net call buying and put selling. The target directly points to the 600 strike. GEX at 600 shows strong positive gamma exposure, suggesting that in the short term a new round of a push toward 600 could begin. In terms of trading approach, as long as there is no effective breakdown below the 20-day moving average, you should decisively follow the trend: buy the pullback, and don’t try to guess the top early.

MU (Figure 2) peaked around 1200 and then pulled back. Recently it even briefly fell below 1000. Over the past few weeks, the 1000 level has been the most densely concentrated support region for gamma exposure. Deeper strong support is the 50-day moving average (around 897). Last Friday, net fund flow turned positive again, implying that after bottoming and consolidating near 1000, it may have a chance to retest the all-time high. On execution, a safer approach is to wait for a second pullback to the prior structure low (for example, the 50-day moving average) before considering going long; or wait until there is an effective breakout above the EMA 20 resistance and then follow through to buy. Also, the downtrend line connecting June 25 to June 30, then to July 9 has been tested repeatedly three times without breaking. The fourth time will most likely break, but based on how the line is currently tracing, it’s more likely to first break, then pull back to confirm, and only then make the real push upward. It’s not recommended to chase before the validity of the breakout is confirmed. There is a gap at 1150.

Meta formed a strong rebound from a low at 550, with a daily trading range of nearly 10%. It has now already regained above the EMA 200 and SMA 200. Accumulated net fund flow shows clear bullish net inflows in the 650 to 700 range, with only some call sell pressure near 700. If the short-term pullback reaches around 650, that would be a decent dip-buy entry point.

Q2 earnings season officially kicks off (Figure 1)

Overall, next week is not only a week highly concentrated with macro data (CPI, PPI, retail sales), but also the first week that the earnings season formally starts. On top of that, geopolitical uncertainty hasn’t faded yet, so volatility is likely to be noticeably higher than in the past few weeks. It’s recommended to stay flexible: trade based on confirmation signals around key levels, and don’t commit fully early to a single direction.