Trump says “we’ve worked it out” — and Iran blows up a ship right after

They agreed on a deal just yesterday: dropping all conditions, stepping out of the room in less than an hour, and then hitting a ship with a drone.

These are Trump’s exact words.

Twenty-five days ago, the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, and calm briefly returned in the Strait. Markets relaxed—oil prices pulled back from their highs, inflation expectations cooled, and US stocks and crypto assets caught their breath too.

Then on July 11, a container ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz; the stern was damaged, a fire broke out on the deck, and a crew member went missing.

In the early hours of July 12, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed effective immediately, and no vessels would be allowed to pass until further notice.

Right after that, the US military launched the third round of strikes against Iran this week, hitting more than 140 military targets. Iran then fired missiles in retaliation against US bases in Qatar, Kuwait, and Jordan.

Three rounds of mutual strikes in a week. 140 targets hit. Missiles flying over half the Middle East.

One side says it’s shut, the other says it’s open.

Iran says: the strait is closed; no ships may pass.

The US says: passage is still ongoing; Iran does not control the strait.

Trump says: the strait is open and flowing.

Qatar says: all shipowners “temporarily suspend” transit.

Four voices, four versions. This is a “Rashomon” situation.

And the reality is: the number of ships passing through the strait fell from 30 to 22 as of July 9, and kept declining. On Sunday, there were almost no ships transiting. Nearly 6,000 seafarers were stranded inside the Persian Gulf.

All talk is happening, but the ships aren’t moving.

One-fifth of the world’s oil is stuck here.

The reaction in oil prices is in no way surprising.

WTI crude rose 3.29% to $73.76; Brent rose 3.29% to $78.51. Last week, Brent had already gained 5.4% in total.

But this is just the beginning.

How will oil prices move in the midterm—three words: no peak.

Why?

First, this isn’t a normal conflict. It’s a direct, hard confrontation over “control of the strait.”

After the two sides signed a memorandum in June, two shipping routes emerged: a northern route controlled by Iran, and a southern route assisted by the US. Iran now tells the world plainly: there is no such thing as a “southern route.” If you go along the US line, I’ll hit you.

The original words from Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Kalibaf: “The era of unilateral agreements is over. Either keep your promises or pay the price.”

This isn’t negotiation language—it’s war language.

Second, Iran’s wording this time is “closure indefinitely.”

Not “temporary,” not “for 24 hours,” but “until the United States stops interfering.”

Will the US stop interfering? Trump just said “the ceasefire is over.”

Neither side has a way out. In the short term, this situation has no solution.

Third, what the market fears most isn’t “it’s closed”—it’s not knowing how long it’ll be closed.

Wood Mackenzie ran simulations: if the strait is closed for most of the year, by the end of 2026 Brent could be nearing $200 per barrel.

$200. Not $100, not $120—$200.

Of course, that’s an extreme scenario. But what the market is pricing right now is precisely that the probability of an extreme scenario is rising.

Oil prices up → inflation rebounds → the Fed won’t dare to cut rates → it may even raise rates again.

BTC, US stocks, and all risk assets will get hit.

You think Bitcoin is “digital gold” that can hedge risk? When the world is scrambling for oil and grain, nobody thinks first about your cold wallet. When liquidity tightens, risk assets are the first to be sold off.

In this round, breaking $90 in oil is just a matter of time. Breaking $100 isn’t a dream either.

And are your crypto positions ready for the next round of “macroeconomic brutal punishment”?

“Peace is the phrase on the negotiating table; missiles are the Middle East’s native language.”#PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #LAB两日腰斩53% #伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡 $BTC $BZ $CL