Europe’s jet fuel inventory is in urgent shortage, with a third-quarter shortfall of 600k barrels per day; supply chain resilience is being tested to the extreme.

Middle East tensions are escalating further. Europe’s jet fuel inventory can support flights for less than 30 days, making it the most strained region globally. Europe maintains flight operations by importing from the US and Asia, increasing refinery output, and drawing on reserves, but the risk of renewed disruptions is rising again. Energy Aspects predicted on June 18 that Europe’s supply shortfall in the third quarter will be close to 600,000 barrels per day, with surpluses of 116,000 and 425,000 barrels per day in the US and Asia, respectively. In early June, Europe’s inventories were 38 million barrels. The IEA’s monthly report said that as of the end of May, inventories were up 10% year on year and refinery output was up 30%. Analysts said that if the current situation continues, the tight conditions will persist until August.