$BTC has entered a relatively cheap range, but it still hasn’t gotten cheap enough for anyone to bang the table and declare “the bottom is in.”

Analyst Jake Pahor recently rebuilt his BTC valuation model. The new version uses a dynamic fair-value band and re-calibrates it using 21 historical market tops and bottoms. After the update, BTC’s current score moved from the “cheapest 3% in history” to 24.3, which sits in the bottom 20% of historical readings.
In plain terms, “This is cheap—really cheap.”
But not so cheap as the level of the historical bottom.
In the real pre-bottom stages of the past few bear markets, this score has already fallen below 20: roughly 7 in 2015, roughly 15 in 2018, and roughly 18 in 2022.
This cycle’s low was only 21.5, corresponding to a BTC price of about $58,550 around July 1. It’s just a little off the historical bottom band, but markets often love to keep tormenting people with the phrase “just a little bit more.”
Now there are two possibilities:
One is that, as institutional capital increases, Bitcoin’s volatility is tightening, so it may not repeat those kinds of deep sell-offs in the future.
The other is that the risk in this leg hasn’t fully been flushed yet, and the one move that truly shuts the market up is still ahead.
Jake’s approach is fairly rational: buy a portion around the $58,550 area, then add more if the indicator drops below 20.
The more fitting judgment right now is that $BTC is already worth scaling in, but it’s not yet time to push all your chips in at once.